当前铜板块利润贡献较低，关注后续二期矿产能释放进度。2024 上半年，公司金属铜销量1.16 万吨，毛利率约15.69%，同比由负转正。根据公司公告，目前铜二期5 号破碎机已经投入生产，进入部分试生产阶段，同时2024 年底主体工程预计完工，2025 年进入爬坡阶段，后续有望持续贡献增量。Key points of investment:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report, and the performance was in line with market expectations. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.85%, and net profit to mother of 0.477 billion yuan, an increase of 25.36%; in 24Q2, the company achieved net profit of 0.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.85% and a decrease of 1.12% over the previous year.
Gross profit per ton of iron ore is basically stable, and the increase in volume is driving a high year-on-year increase in gross profit. In the first half of 2024, the company completed magnetite sales volume of 4.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 61.2%. Mainly, iron ore shipments in the first half of 2023 were disrupted by South African floods and power restrictions on infrastructure such as railways, highways, ports, etc., causing a low base for the same period last year; the price of a ton was about 538 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.96%; the total gross profit of the iron ore sector contributed about 1.956 billion yuan per ton. Yuan, up 57.58% year over year.
Currently, the copper sector's profit contribution is low, so pay attention to the progress of the next phase of mineral capacity release in the second phase. In the first half of 2024, the company sold 0.0116 million tons of copper, with a gross margin of about 15.69%, which changed from negative to positive over the previous year. According to the company's announcement, the Copper Phase II No. 5 crusher has now been put into production and has entered some trial production stages. At the same time, the main project is expected to be completed by the end of 2024, and it will enter the climbing phase in 2025, and it is expected that it will continue to contribute more in the future.
Sales expenses increased, and overall expenses increased year-on-year during the period. In the first half of 2024, the company's total expenses for the period were about 1.236 billion yuan, an increase of 81.7% over the previous year. Among them, management expenses were 0.27 billion yuan, up 18.49% year on year, mainly due to an increase in employee remuneration; sales expenses were 1.099 billion yuan, up 71.78% year on year, mainly due to an increase in iron ore sales over the same period, leading to an increase in transportation expenses; financial expenses were -0.133 billion yuan, an increase of 0.054 billion yuan year on year, mainly due to a decrease in exchange income over the same period; the company had no R&D expenses during the period, and there was no change year on year.
Investment analysis: The company's iron ore costs are low, and the iron ore sector is expected to contribute steadily to profits; at the same time, copper sales are expected to continue to grow after the second phase of the mine is put into operation, and the copper sector's performance is growing at a high rate. We kept the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 unchanged at 1.098/1.262/1.456 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to 24-26 PE of 8 times, 7 times, and 6 times, respectively, and maintained an “increase” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations, copper and iron ore prices fall; turbulence in the South African region may cause the risk that copper production will fall short of expectations; and shipping costs will rise.
