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中国太平保险(0966.HK):资产、负债两端均表现优异 显著超预期

China Taiping Insurance (0966.HK): Excellent performance on both sides of assets and liabilities, significantly exceeding expectations

交銀國際 ·  Aug 29, 2024 15:11

The profit performance of major business segments is improving across the board. Net profit to mother increased 15.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, and the profit scale is close to the level of the full year of 2023. Net profit from operations increased 19% year over year. By sector, the increase mainly came from reinsurance and life insurance, which contributed 10.4 and 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Financial insurance and asset management businesses also made positive contributions. Profit trends in major business segments are positive: net profit from life insurance operations increased 4.9% year on year, reinsurance business turned loss into profit, comprehensive domestic financial insurance cost ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points year on year, and net profit from overseas financial insurance operations increased 75% year on year.

The value of the new business grew rapidly, leading the industry, and significantly exceeding expectations. The value of the new business increased by 85.5% year-on-year (RMB caliber +83.6%), with individual insurance/banking insurance channels contributing 49.6 percentage points and 35.6 percentage points, respectively. The company increased the value assessment weight of new businesses and abolished the requirements for channel structures. The banking insurance channel contributed 26%, an increase of 14 percentage points over the previous year. The value ratio of the new business was 24.6%, up 12.4 percentage points year on year. Among them, individual insurance/banking insurance channels increased 8.9/16.4 percentage points year over year, respectively.

The increase in the value ratio is mainly due to a decrease in predetermined interest rates, the integration of banking insurance channel reporting, and the lengthening of the term of banking insurance channel products (the share of 5-year term payments increased by 26 percentage points). The company will increase dividend insurance sales in the second half of the year and next year. We expect the value of new business to increase by more than 50% year over year in 2024.

Investment returns were strong, mainly due to an increase in capital gains due to the optimization of the equity investment structure. Investment assets increased 9.4% in the first half of the year, and net/total investment income increased 10.8%/57.1%, respectively. The net return on investment was 3.47%, down 0.16 percentage points year on year; the annualized return on total investment was 5.27%, up 1.38 percentage points year on year. In terms of asset allocation, the share of bond investment increased 4.6 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year, and the share of equity investment decreased by 2.8 percentage points. Real estate investment accounts for 4% of investment assets, of which investment properties account for 1.6% of investment assets.

Maintain a buy rating. The company performed well on both its assets and liabilities, and significantly exceeded expectations. We raised our profit forecast. Due to the low profit base for the second half of 2023, we expect a profit growth rate of more than 40% for the whole year. Based on a net market ratio of 0.4 times, we raised our target price from HK$10.6 to HK$11.6 to maintain our purchase.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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