盈利预测和估值。根据2024 年上半年公司经营情况，我们对盈利预测进行调整，预计2024 年至2026 年营业收入分别为4.59 亿元、7.87 亿元和10.74 亿元，同比增速分别为11.5%、71.5%和36.5%；归母净利润分别为-0.64 亿元、0.11 亿元和0.91 亿元，以8 月28 日收盘价计算，对应PE 分别为-52.4 倍、295.4 倍和36.8 倍，维持“买入”评级。Incident: The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. The first half of 2024 achieved operating income of 0.181 billion yuan (-24.16%), net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was -45.43 million yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deduction was -53.32 million yuan.
Innovative HIV drugs are being released rapidly, and the R&D pipeline is progressing steadily. In the first half of 2024, the total sales revenue of new HIV drugs was about 81.6339 million yuan, an increase of 148.68% over the previous year. We believe that it mainly benefited from the new inclusion of enomil tablets in the medical insurance catalogue and the successful renewal of enovirin tablets. In addition, the scope of medical insurance payments was also adjusted to “limit HIV infection”, and patient coverage was expanded. Compared with competing products, Enomi tablets have significant advantages in terms of efficacy and safety. We believe that there is still a great potential to increase the market share and sales amount of Enomi tablets in the future. Currently, the number of new patients using enovirin tablets and enomide tablets is growing rapidly, and the stickiness of taking medication is increasing. We expect the company's revenue from innovative HIV drugs to continue to maintain a rapid trend. The company continues to build an HIV drug development pipeline. ACC017 (integrase inhibitor) has completed phase I clinical trials, phase IB/IIa clinical trials are about to begin, and various projects such as ACC027 are progressing steadily.
The human protein business has fluctuated, and the layout of the entire industry chain continues to advance. The company's human protein business experienced certain fluctuations in the first half of 2024. Revenue decreased by 98.2978 million yuan compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that it is mainly related to the reduction in the collection price of urokinase preparations and transmission to upstream APIs. The company continues to promote major asset acquisitions. In the future, it will control Nanda Pharmaceutical and achieve a “human protein raw material-formulation integration” strategic layout from the supply of raw materials and the production of APIs to the production of urokinase preparations, which is expected to become a new performance growth point.
Profit forecasting and valuation. Based on the company's operating conditions in the first half of 2024, we adjusted the profit forecast. We expect revenue of 0.459 billion yuan, 0.787 billion yuan, and 1,074 billion yuan respectively from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 71.5% and 36.5%, respectively; net profit to mother is -0.064 billion yuan, 0.011 billion yuan, and 91 billion yuan, respectively, calculated at the closing price on August 28. The corresponding PE is -52.4 billion yuan, respectively Times, 295.4x, and 36.8x maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The procurement price reduction for core products exceeded expectations; the volume/approval progress of innovative HIV drugs fell short of expectations.
