Incidents:
On August 28, 2024, the company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 2.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.63%; net profit to mother was 0.499 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.40%.
Excluding the impact of large orders during the same period of the year, 2024H1 revenue achieved positive growth:
On the revenue side, 2024H1 achieved revenue of 2.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.63%. Among them, commercial-stage CDMO, clinical-stage CDMO, and emerging services achieved revenue of 1.396 billion yuan (-56.75%), 0.799 billion yuan (-6.97%), and 0.5 billion yuan (-5.77%), respectively. On the profit side, 2024H1 achieved net profit of 0.499 billion yuan to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 70.40%. The decline in 2024H1's revenue and profit side was mainly due to the impact of large orders in the same period last year. Revenue increased slightly after excluding the impact of large orders in the same period last year.
New orders picked up in a timely manner, and the company's business was operating steadily in all sectors:
Thanks to improvements in global investment and financing for innovative drugs, and boosted R&D demand on popular circuits such as peptides and ADCs, 2024H1's new orders increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and the total number of orders in hand reached 0.97 billion US dollars. The company's new orders are gradually picking up, driving steady business development in various sectors. Among them, in the small molecule business, 2024H1 delivered 43 commercialization projects and 9 new commercialization projects, respectively. In the commercialization phase, CDMO revenue increased 8.82% year-on-year after excluding the impact of large orders; in the emerging business, the peptide business continued to develop rapidly, and the company obtained mid- to late-stage peptide clinical projects from several multinational pharmaceutical companies, and helped domestic customers successfully pass the dynamic verification of GLP-1 peptide projects. In order to meet customers' commercial peptide production needs, the company is actively expanding related production capacity. The total production capacity for solid phase peptide synthesis will reach 14,250L in 2024. In addition, the company relied on rich project experience and professional capabilities in the field of toxins and connectors to quickly build one-stop ADC service capabilities. As of 2024H1, the biomacromolecule business had close to 100 orders, and ADC projects accounted for more than 50% of the total number of orders.
Investment advice:
The company's net profit from 2024 to 2026 is estimated to be 1.192 billion yuan, 1.384 billion yuan, and 1.576 billion yuan, respectively; EPS is expected to be 3.24 yuan/share in 2024, with 25 times PE, corresponding to a 6-month target price of 81.00 yuan/share, giving a buy-A investment rating.
Risk warning: Order growth falls short of expectations, order delivery falls short of expectations, development of emerging businesses falls short of expectations, industry sentiment falls short of expectations, risk of overseas policy changes, etc.