2024年上半年公司业绩符合预期，物业经营、贸易业务稳中向好，商品房结转节奏扰动短期业绩，维持增持评级。2024 年上半年公司营业收入26.4 亿元，同比下滑31.4%，其中物业经营/贸易及服务/房产销售营收分别为10.4/13.8/0.5 亿元，同比增速分别为+6.2%/-3.8%/-96.2%；归母净利润1.4 亿元，同比下滑72.8%。维持2024~2026年EPS 为0.88/0.90/0.97 元，维持目标价11.28 元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
Affected by the carry-over pace of commercial housing projects, the company's performance was under short-term pressure in the first half of 2024, and it is expected that there will be significant improvement in the second half of the year; the scale of high-quality property assets has expanded steadily, and there is considerable room for long-term rent growth.
Key points of investment:
The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was in line with expectations. The property management and trading business were steady, moderate and positive. The pace of commercial housing carry-over disrupted short-term performance and maintained an increase in holdings rating. In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue was 2.64 billion yuan, down 31.4% year on year. Among them, property operation/trade and services/real estate sales revenue was 1.04/1.38/0.05 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +6.2%/-3.8%/-96.2%, respectively; net profit to mother was 0.14 billion yuan, down 72.8% year on year. Maintain EPS of 0.88/0.90/0.97 yuan from 2024 to 2026, maintain the target price of 11.28 yuan, and maintain an increase in holdings rating.
The pressure on short-term performance was mainly due to the carry-over of no commercial housing projects in the first half of the year. Considering that asset transfers and commercial housing sales in 2024 were confirmed in the fourth quarter, it is expected that the second half of the year's performance will improve significantly compared to the first half of the year. In the first half of 2024, the company's real estate sales segment's revenue of 0.05 billion yuan came from sales of parking spaces and stock stores in the Senlan region; in the second half of the year, the company will complete the delivery and carry-over of some commercial housing units at Sunland One Mansion and Zhuqiao Senlan Haitian Famous Construction, which is expected to provide strong support for the second half of the year's results. Using the sales scale of the project as a reference: 1) Sunland Mansion has all been sold out, with a total sales repayment of 0.75 billion yuan; 2) Haitian Mingzhu has sold an area of 0.009 million square meters as of the end of 2023, accounting for 21.3% of its total saleable area. Based on the reference price of 0.054 million/square meter provided by Shell, the total amount is 0.49 billion yuan.
With incremental investment and the gradual implementation of stock transformation, the company's rental property asset area has steadily expanded and the quality continues to be upgraded, continuously consolidating the position of the property management business as a ballast stone for performance. In terms of additional investment, the company has already landed a 0.15 million square life science industrial park in the first half of 2024, and will also build a 0.12 million square meter new exhibition center in the second half of the year, and the company has formulated a stock property renewal plan of about 0.3 million square meters for the next three years from 2024 to 2026, laying the foundation for the long-term continuous growth of subsequent rental revenue. In addition, the gross margin of the leasing business improved in the first half of the year. The gross margin of commercial real estate leasing changed from negative to 9.8%, and the gross margin of industrial real estate leasing rose 4.8 pct to 61.8% year on year.
Innovate financing channels and substantially advance capital operations. On the one hand, the company's issuance of shares to specific targets was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission on June 4, 2024, and the issuance process will commence in due course; on the other hand, the company plans to issue warehousing and logistics public REITs, which were reported to the National Development and Reform Commission in March 2024.
Risk warning: Weakening international trade activity affects trade and service business development; sales of residential projects fall short of expectations; capital operation results such as fixed increase issuance and REITs issuance fall short of expectations.
