高档酒量价齐升引领增长，增长主要来源于省内大本营市场24H1 高中低档白酒分别实现收入29.7/0.4/0.7 亿元，分别同比+7.3%/-7.1%/+50.9%；24Q2 高中低档白酒分别实现收入13.0/0.1/0.3 亿元，分别同比+3.5%/+4.0%/+16.6%。我们认为增速和产品结构上均延续了23年的趋势，大单品兼系列仍在持续推广。根据酒食汇，24 年4 月公司新品“兼8”上市，1）零售指导价328 元/瓶，预估实际成交价200 元左右的价格带，补充兼系列产品结构同时对标竞品；2）主攻宴席市场；3）新品上市+宴席送酒+回收瓶盖奖励+扫码抽奖等形式，增厚渠道利润并提高消费者积极性。我们认为通过以上三点竞争要素期待为公司收入利润带来更多增量。Incident Overview
The company released its mid-year report, and 24H1 achieved revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, +8.7% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 0.95 billion yuan, +11.9% year-on-year. 24Q2 achieved revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, +5.9% YoY; net profit to mother of 0.36 billion yuan, +15.2% YoY. In line with market expectations.
Analytical judgment:
The sharp rise in the volume and price of premium alcohol led the growth. The increase was mainly due to 24H1 high and low grade liquor achieving revenue of 2.97/0.04/0.07 billion yuan respectively, +7.3%/-7.1%/+50.9%, respectively; 24Q2 high and low grade liquor achieved revenue of 1.3/0.01/0.03 billion yuan, respectively, +3.5%/+4.0%/+16.6% compared to the same period last year. We believe that the growth rate and product structure have continued the trend for 23 years, and that large single products and series are still being promoted. According to Liquor Exchange, the company's new product “also 8” was launched in April '24. 1) The retail guide price is 328 yuan/bottle, and the actual transaction price range is estimated to be around 200 yuan, complementing the serial product structure and consumers' competition; 2) focusing on the banquet market; 3) new product launch+banquet wine+recycling bottle cap rewards+code scanning sweepstakes, etc., to increase channel profits and increase consumer enthusiasm. We believe that through the above three competitive factors, we expect to bring more growth to the company's revenue and profit.
24H1 achieved revenue of 2.6/0.48 billion yuan respectively, +8.8%/+3.1%, respectively; 24Q2 achieved revenue of 1.12/0.22 billion yuan, +5.0%/-2.4%, respectively. The company's growth was mainly due to intensive cultivation in the provincial base market to strengthen the decline in county and township markets; outside the province focused on key markets, optimized resource allocation, and deepened the marketing foundation.
Increased gross margin drives performance growth
The gross margin of 24H1/24Q2 was 75.8%/75.0%, respectively, +2.0/+4.5pct year over year; of these, the gross margin of 24H1 high school and low grade liquor was 77.1%/45.0%/29.2%, and 23FY was +1.2/+0.7/-13.7pct month-on-month respectively. We believe that the increase in the gross margin of premium wine was the main factor driving the company's overall gross margin increase, and the gross margin of low-grade alcohol returned to the historical average. 24H1/24Q2 taxes and surcharges accounted for 14.7%/15.5% of revenue, -1.4/-2.5pct; 24H1/24Q2 sales expense rates were 15.0%/18.8%, +1.4/+3.9 pct, respectively; 24H1/24Q2 management expenses were 6.2%/7.2%, respectively, +0.2/+0.3 pct year over year, respectively. The main reason for the increase in the sales expense ratio is that promotion and business expenses are expected to be +28.5% year over year and advertising expenses +15.5% year over year; the management expense ratio is basically the same. In summary, the decline in taxes and surcharges as a share of revenue offset the increase in expenses during part of the period, and the increase in gross margin drove 24H1/24Q2 net interest rates by 30.0%/25.7%, respectively, compared to +0.9/+2.1 pct.
Anchored 3-year development goals, steady growth
At the beginning of 2024, the company set development goals for the next 3 years based on industry trends. 1) Market upgrade to double sales and achieve the “10 billion units” target as soon as possible; 2) structural upgrade, turning the series into a strategic single product, with a significant increase in the share of middle and high-end products; 3) Brand upgrade: leading the expansion and strengthening of the incense category, becoming the “No. 1 brand of Chinese high-end liquor”, winning cultural ownership and brand recognition.
On this basis, we believe that the company's marketing improved month-on-month in the first half of the year. 1) Promote the construction of a marketing system, consolidate the market foundation, and insist on sinking channels within the province+focusing on key marketing breakthroughs outside the province. 2) Strengthen the promotion and investment of high-end products, and focus on structural upgrading. 3) Establish a dealer evaluation system and optimize the agent structure. 4) Optimize staffing, focus on key markets, and strengthen the business personnel assessment system.
Investment advice
According to the adjusted profit forecast in the interim report, 24-25 operating income was lowered from 6.72/7.59 billion yuan to 6.61/7.24 billion yuan, adding 26-year operating income of 7.89 billion yuan; 24-25 net profit to mother was reduced from 2.02/2.32 billion yuan to 1.93/2.14 billion yuan, and net profit due to mother in '26 was 2.37 billion yuan; and 24-25 EPS was lowered from 3.37/3.87 billion yuan to 3.87 billion yuan 3.22/3.57 yuan, an additional 26-year EPS of 3.96 yuan, and the closing price of 34.2 yuan on August 28, 2024, corresponding valuations were 11/10/9 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
The macroeconomic downturn affects consumer demand; food safety issues; demand falls short of expectations during peak seasons; and increased competition within the industry.
