经营突出稳健，境外业务增长较好，ROE 环比回升。分业务来看，24H1公司经纪/投行/资管/利息/自营/其他净收入分别同比-8%/-55%/-1% /-47%/+2%/+55%，占比分别16%/6%/16%/4%/39%/19%。其他收入增长较多主要是大宗商品贸易销售收入低基数增长和汇率波动导致汇兑收益增长。分地区来看，境外业务保持较好增长，境内地区营业收入241 亿元（YoY-9.5%），境外营业收入61 亿元（YoY+25.0%）。费用端相对稳健，24H1 管理费率44.7%（YoY-0.4pct），信用减值损失转回3.5 亿元（23H1信用减值损失计提3.8 亿元），归母净利润率35.0%（YoY-0.9pct）。杠杆调降，24H1 杠杆倍数4.32 倍（YoY-0.02 倍，较上年末-0.03 倍，较Q1末-0.20 倍）， 24H1 年化ROE 为7.71% （ YoY-1.14pct ， 环比24Q1+0.50pct）。Matters:
CITIC Securities released its 2024 semi-annual report, achieving operating income of 30.183 billion yuan (YoY -4.18%) and net profit to mother of 10.57 billion yuan (YoY -6.51%). The total assets are 1,495 billion yuan, and the parent company's net assets are 279.3 billion yuan. EPS (diluted) is 0.71 yuan, BVPS is 17.24 yuan. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.4 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares in the interim, accounting for 33.7% of the net profit to mother.
Ping An's point of view:
Operations were outstanding and steady, overseas business growth was good, and ROE rebounded month-on-month. By business, 24H1's broker/investment banking/asset management/interest/proprietary operation/other net income was -8%/-55%/-1%/-47%/ +2%/+55%, respectively, accounting for 16%/6%/16%/4%/39%/19%, respectively. Other revenue increases were mainly due to low base growth in commodity trade sales revenue and exchange rate fluctuations, which led to an increase in exchange earnings. By region, overseas business maintained good growth, with domestic revenue of 24.1 billion yuan (YoY -9.5%) and overseas revenue of 6.1 billion yuan (YoY +25.0%). The cost side is relatively stable, with a 24H1 management rate of 44.7% (YOY-0.4pct), credit impairment losses reversed back 0.35 billion yuan (23H1 credit impairment loss accrued 0.38 billion yuan), and a net profit margin of 35.0% (YOY-0.9pct). Leverage reduction, 24H1 leverage ratio 4.32 times (YoY-0.02 times, -0.03 times at the end of the previous year, -0.20 times at the end of Q1), and the 24H1 annualized ROE was 7.71% (YOY-1.14pct, YoY-1.14pct, month-on-month ratio 24q1+0.50pct).
Q2 The performance of net income from self-employment, asset management, and interest all improved month-on-quarter. In a single quarter of 24Q2, the company achieved operating income of 16.4 billion yuan (QoQ +19%) and net profit of 5.6 billion yuan (QoQ +13%). Looking at the spin-off business, the net income of brokerage and investment banks in a single quarter was basically flat, with net asset management revenue +8% month-on-month, and net interest income +143% month-on-month (mainly due to a decrease in interest expenses), self-operating income +15% month-on-month, and other revenue +52% month-on-month (mainly due to commodity business contributions).
The year-on-year growth rate of the proprietary business improved, and the market share of the two finance businesses increased against the market. At the end of 24H1, the company's self-operating scale was 770.7 billion yuan (YoY +17%, +7% compared to the end of the previous year, QoQ -3%), with investment of 67 billion yuan in other equity instruments, +604% compared to the end of the previous year and +3% compared to the beginning of the year. 24H1's own revenue was 11.7 billion yuan (YoY +1.7%). In terms of credit business, the two loans raised 110.4 billion yuan (YoY +3%, -5% compared to the end of the previous year), accounting for 7.45% of the total market's two financing scale (according to Wind), and the market share increased by about 0.4 pct compared to the end of the previous year. However, the decline in average interest rates led to 24H1 interest income of 10.3 billion yuan (YoY -4%); interest expenses of 9.2 billion yuan (YoY +7%), mainly an increase in interest expenses on sales and repurchases.
The asset management business is relatively stable. The brokerage and investment banking business is under pressure from the market, and the market share remains steady. 1) The average daily share base turnover of 24H1A shares was 984.6 billion yuan (YoY -7%), and the decline in the company's brokerage commission revenue was basically the same, with net income of 2.986 billion yuan (YoY -7%); institutional brokerage business is expected to be pressured by both trading volume and commission, with seat rental revenue of 0.587 billion yuan (YoY -26%) in the first half of the year; revenue from financial product sales of 0.709 billion yuan (YoY -11%). However, the company's customer resources are still leading. By the end of 24H1, the total number of customers reached 14.7 million, and the asset scale of managed clients remained at the level of 10 trillion, achieving positive growth over the end of the previous year.
2) Asset management revenue declined slightly, which is expected to be due to rate adjustments and a year-on-year decline in the scale of asset management. The management scale of 24H1's brokerage asset management business was 1.46 trillion yuan (YoY -3%, +5% compared to the end of the previous year), and the company's private equity asset management business had a market share of 13.23%, ranking first in the industry. The subsidiary Huaxia Fund's public fund management scale was 1.57 trillion yuan (+18.9% compared to the end of the previous year), achieving operating income of 3.669 billion yuan (YoY -1.1%) and net profit of 1.062 billion yuan (YoY -1.2%), and maintained relatively steady performance against the backdrop of reduced management rates.
3) According to Wind's listing statistics, 24H1's IPO underwriting amount was 5.1 billion yuan (YoY -85%), and the market share was 15.6% (share of A-share IPO underwriting amount, A-share underwriting amount, same as below), which was basically the same; refinancing (allotment+additional issuance) underwriting amount was 19.3 billion yuan (YoY -83%), with a market share of 19.8%, a year-on-year decline; the bond underwriting amount was 871 billion yuan (YoY +5%), with a market share of 14.4% There is a slight improvement over the comparison.
Investment advice: The company's many leading business advantages continue to expand, and comprehensive service capabilities and professional capabilities raise competitive barriers. Recently, the direction of high-quality development in the securities industry is clear. The State Council stated that it will concentrate on building a “national team” for the financial industry and promoting the improvement and strengthening of leading brokerage firms. The attention paid by regulators to the capital market and securities companies has increased markedly. As a leading company in the securities industry, the company's competitive advantage is expected to further improve, and it is optimistic about the company's long-term growth space and shareholder returns. Maintain the company's 24/25/26 net profit forecast of 20.3/22.3/23.8 billion yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year change of +3%/+10%/+7%. The company's current stock price corresponds to about 1.07 times the 2024 PB, maintaining a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1) The progress of capital market reforms fell short of expectations; 2) monetary policy tightened beyond expectations; 3) The decline in macroeconomic growth exceeding expectations affects market risk appetite.
