If Bitcoin (BTC) fails to break the current weekly high in the next three days, the closing price in August will be lower than the monthly opening price. This means that the burden of achieving positive monthly returns will be extended to September.

So, should we expect a bull market for Bitcoin in September? Historically, this is one of the most pessimistic months for cryptocurrencies.

Since 2013, in 11 Septembers, 8 have shown a bearish trend for this coin.

This indicates a bearish tendency for Bitcoin in September, but will a similar situation occur this year? Key factors suggest that BTC may become extremely bullish in the next month.

Recent data shows that global liquidity is recovering and is currently at a new high. Although Bitcoin has not yet gained a significant amount of liquidity, the fact that liquidity recovery is on a positive trend is beneficial for the market.

The increase in global liquidity, combined with the expected interest rate cut in September, may provide momentum for Bitcoin to achieve positive returns this month.

The combination of interest rate cuts, increased liquidity, halving, and the U.S. presidential election makes the situations in 2016 and 2020 very similar to Bitcoin. BTC experienced strong rallies in both of these scenarios.

At a time when BTC prices are falling, capital interest rates are positive.

Since the price plummeted in early August, most traders have been rushing to exit, pushing sentiment to the most 'fearful' region since early September 2023, and this sentiment has been dominant. Looking at the sentiment chart, the only time in the past year when traders were extremely greedy was when Bitcoin rose to its historical high and rebounded to $73,800.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: CoinMarketCap

Therefore, if the price remains weak and the market sentiment is neutral, at least in the short term, this may help support optimistic bulls. A rebound above $63,000 could help reverse the downturn on August 27th and potentially stimulate demand. This expansion could be the basis for further breakthroughs beyond the August 2024 high.

Even though it's optimistic, the average financing rate for Binance, Bybit, and OKX is still positive at 0.002%. This means that short leveraged traders are rewarded for holding positions.

Usually, this means that the trading price of perpetual bonds is higher than the spot price, and this development may encourage more sellers and exacerbate the downward trend.

Typically, when the price rises, the financing rate is positive, indicating a bullish market sentiment. When the price falls, the financing rate becomes negative, which means that short sellers have to pay leverage to those betting on price increases.

Bitcoin is entering the mainstream market.

Now, Bitcoin is more accessible than ever, especially with the introduction of ETFs earlier this year. With the latest filing from Nasdaq, this expanding accessibility may soon enter the stock market.

The latter is seeking to launch bitcoin options trading, which could further boost investor sentiment.

Bitcoin investors may also be preparing for a price increase in September. In the past 24 hours, there has been a significant increase in the inflow of funds from large holders, reaching the fourth highest level in the past three months.

During the same period, the inflow reached a peak of 77,400 BTC, while the outflow was only 11,240 BTC.

Previously, the price of Bitcoin was once expected to rise above $0.07 million, but then fell below $0.06 million again. Therefore, based on the accumulation strength at low price levels, investor optimism remains high.

Bitcoin maintains a significant dominance over Ethereum [ETH] and other altcoins. This means it is strategically positioned to take advantage of the majority of liquidity flowing into the cryptocurrency market.

Therefore, despite the existence of many altcoins, Bitcoin still attracts most of the mainstream attention.

In conclusion, if interest rates decrease, Bitcoin will have a potential call in September.

In short

The current improvement in global liquidity and the increasing adoption rate of mainstream markets may benefit BTC's performance before the end of the year. Historically, Bitcoin has mostly been bearish in September, but this time may be different. At the same time, Nasdaq embracing Bitcoin and the improvement in global liquidity conditions may lead to a bullish outcome in September.

In summary, I believe that in the short term, market sentiment and some indicators support a bullish outlook. In the long term, factors such as interest rate cuts, increased liquidity, halving, and the US presidential election, I believe will drive strong upward momentum for BTC. Additionally, investors' current optimism remains high, which will further drive it to retest and break through $60,000, leading to further gains.