从利润端看，24Q2 归母净利率同比-11.6pct 至9.5%，其中毛利率-2.2pct 至75.6%，销售费用率/管理费用率/销售税金及附加占比分别+5.7pct/+1.0pct/+2.7pct，收入承压背景下相对刚性的费用支出对利润率仍有压制。此外，24Q2 末合同负债余额2.6亿元，环比+0.2 亿元，考虑△合同负债+收入后狭义回款同比-20%；24Q2 销售收现5.2 亿元，同比-13%。公司营收降幅逐步收窄，关注渠道建设成果逐步转化进程。On August 28, 2024, the company disclosed its 2016 semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved revenue of 0.99 billion yuan, or -35.5% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 0.12 billion yuan, or -71.3% year-on-year. Among them, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 0.5 billion yuan, or -13.3% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 0.05 billion yuan, or -60.9% YoY, which is at the top of the previous forecast.
By product, 24H1 Naisen/ Alcohol/ Xiangquan/ Other series achieved revenue of 1.7/0.59/0.05/0.18 billion yuan, compared with -61%/-30%/+36%/-18%, with sales volume of -44%/-29%/+36%/-11%, tonnage price was -30%/-1%/flat/-7% to 69.1/0.277/0.06/0.144 million/kilolitre. The decline in tonnage prices led to gross margins of Naisen/ Alcoholics and other series. 2.8/-3.2/-8.1pct The company insists on using the Jiachen edition as the core gripper to optimize the internal participation value chain and promote profit sharing. Expenses are mainly based on scanning codes for red envelopes and gifts; the Alcoholics series focuses on the product layout of the national market around big red products.
By channel, 24H1 online/offline achieved revenue of 0.11/0.88 billion yuan respectively, +2%/-39% over the same period last year. In addition, in the first half of the year, there were -75/-76/-28/-210/-84 distributors in North China/East China/Central China/Central China/other regions, respectively, with a total reduction of 473 to 1301. The company continued to optimize dealer quality and increase sales team service efforts such as terminal visits. In 24H1 sales expenses, employee remuneration -3.5%, publicity and marketing service fees were -23.2%. Some of the investment is expected to be reflected on the cost side.
On the profit side, net profit margin for 24Q2 was 11.6pct to 9.5% year-on-year, of which gross margin was -2.2pct to 75.6%, and sales expense ratio/sales tax and additional shares were +5.7pct/+1.0pct/+2.7pct, respectively. Relatively rigid expenses in the context of revenue pressure still suppressed profit margins. In addition, the balance of contract debt at the end of 24Q2 was 0.26 billion yuan, +0.02 billion yuan month-on-month. Considering △ contract debt+revenue, narrow repayment ratio -20% YoY; 24Q2 sales revenue was 0.52 billion yuan, or -13% YoY. The decline in the company's revenue is gradually narrowing, and attention is being paid to the gradual transformation process of channel construction results.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Considering the continued weakening demand in the liquor industry, we lowered 24-26 net profit of 5%/7%/9%, and estimated 24-26 revenue of -8.7%/+13.5%/+12.1%; net profit to mother was -31.1%/+22.3%/+16.9%, corresponding to net profit attributable to mother of 0.38/0.46/0.54 billion yuan, respectively: EPS was 1.16/1.42/1.66 yuan. The current PE valuation of the company's stock was 29.7/24.3/20.8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of macroeconomic pressure; marketing transformation results fall short of expectations: Nationalization and expansion fall short of expectations: Food safety risks.
