H1 增收不增利，派息比例保持稳定：2024H1 公司增收不增利主要系毛利率下滑（同比下滑4.1pct）与结算权益占比下滑所致；派息比率为核心净利润40%，保持稳定，重视股东回报。2024 年公司可售货值约2700 亿元，行业调整下公司管理层主动优化运营，仍积极争取全年销售目标达成，不改初心。Matters:
The company released its 2024 mid-year report. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 35.34 billion yuan, up 10.1% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.83 billion yuan, down 15.9% year on year, and plans to pay an interim dividend of RMB 0.173 per share.
Ping An's point of view:
There was no increase in H1 revenue, and the dividend ratio remained stable: the increase in revenue and profit of the 2024H1 company was mainly due to a decline in gross margin (4.1pct year-on-year decline) and a decline in the share of settlement equity; the dividend ratio was 40% of core net profit, which remained stable, and emphasis was placed on shareholder returns. The company can sell goods worth about 270 billion yuan in 2024. Under industry adjustments, the company's management actively optimizes operations, and is still actively seeking to achieve sales targets for the whole year without changing its original intentions.
Diversified storage models replenish positions, and the financial situation is stable and secure. 2024H1 maintained its investment strength of “fixed investment through marketing”, adding 12 parcels of land, with a total construction area of 1.72 million square meters, adding 88% of the land storage in first-tier and key second-tier provincial capitals, accounting for 66% of the diversified channel increase. Among them, the Pazhou South TOD Phase II project in Guangzhou added a land reserve of about 0.14 million square meters. The project achieved the first batch of land supply; as of 2024H1, the company's total land reserve is about 25.03 million square meters, and 94% is located in the first tier and key two key two Online cities account for about 51% of the increase in savings through diversified channels. The company's “three red lines” remained “green”. The average borrowing cost at the end of the period fell to 3.57%, and the average financing cost at the end of the period fell to 3.47%; flexible use of dim sum bonds to reduce overseas financing costs. 2024H1 issued overseas RMB dim sum bonds of 2.39 billion yuan, with a weighted average interest rate of 4.07%.
Investment advice: The company is a local state-owned enterprise in the Greater Bay Area, seeking steady progress during the downturn of the industry. The financing advantage combined with diversified expansion models helped break through countercyclical land acquisition efforts, and is expected to further expand its market share in the industry reshuffle; we maintain the company's 2024-2026 EPS forecast of 0.79 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.86 yuan respectively. The current stock price (as of August 28, 2024) corresponds to PE at 4.4 times, 4.3 times, and 4.1 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1) There is a risk that the company's gross margin will decline; 2) There is a risk that land acquisition efforts fall short of expectations: if subsequent land auction rules are adjusted or the market fluctuates, the company may be prevented from expanding land storage, which will also limit future sales scale growth; 3) Policy improvements fall short of expectations, and the recovery of the property market falls short of expectations.