海外：重视出口机遇，24H1 公司海外收入超过45%。根据公告，24H1 公司海外市场实现收入77.12 亿元，同比+18.82%，海外市场收入占比达48.02%（同比+4.85pcts）；从核心产品来看，24H1 公司挖机装载机销量同比增速超过200%，宽体车海外销量增速为55.7%；多个品类放量助力公司拓展海外市场，打开收入天花板。Brief performance review
On August 28, the company released the 24-year report. 24H1's revenue was 16.06 billion yuan, +6.81% year over year; net profit to mother was 0.984 billion yuan, +60.20% year over year; of these, single Q2 achieved revenue of 8.121 billion yuan, +12.11% year over year; net profit to mother was 0.486 billion yuan, +62.48% year over year, and net profit to mother for the single quarter exceeded the median performance forecast, slightly exceeding market expectations.
Management analysis
Overseas: Focus on export opportunities. 24H1's overseas revenue exceeds 45%. According to the announcement, 24H1 achieved revenue of 7.712 billion yuan in overseas markets, +18.82% year-on-year, accounting for 48.02% of overseas market revenue (+4.85pcts year over year); in terms of core products, 24H1's excavator loader sales grew by more than 200% year on year, and overseas sales of wide-body vehicles grew 55.7%; multiple categories helped the company expand overseas markets and open up revenue ceilings.
Multiple factors resonate, and profitability continues to improve. 24Q2's gross margin was 24.01%, +2.44pcts year on year and +1.22pcts month-on-month. The gross margin for a single quarter hit a 20-year high; 24Q2's net margin was 6.17%, +2.10pcts year on year. The company's significant increase in profitability is mainly due to: 1) the overseas market led to an increase in profit margins. The gross margin of 24H1's overseas and domestic markets was 29.09% and 18.15% respectively. The overseas market share increased the company's overall gross profit margin; 2) cost reduction and efficiency: the company focused on reducing costs effectively throughout the value chain, reducing manufacturing costs by 3.4%, and reducing procurement costs by 4.3%. As the company's overseas markets continue to expand and cost reduction and efficiency continue to advance, we are optimistic that the company's profit margin level will continue to rise. We expect the company's net interest rate to be 5.0%/5.8%/6.4% in 24-26.
Loaders and excavators have recovered in the domestic market, and the company has fully benefited from the upward cycle of domestic earthmoving machinery. According to the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, M3-M6 domestic excavator sales in 2014 were 15188/10782/8518/7661 units, respectively, +9.3%/13.3%/29.2%/25.6%. Domestic excavator sales increased for four consecutive months, and domestic loader sales were also corrected at 24M4-M6. According to the announcement, 24H1's domestic sales volume of excavators increased by 29.5% year on year, and its market share increased by 3 pcts. As domestic sales of earthmoving machinery products continue to grow, the company is expected to fully recover in the domestic market.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue in 2024-2026 to be 30.619/34.282/38.921 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 1.536/1.982/2.49 billion yuan, corresponding PE to 12/9/7X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Demand for downstream real estate and infrastructure falls short of expectations, increased competition in overseas markets, risk of rising raw material prices, and risk of exchange rate fluctuations.