瑞银的报告指出，如果哈里斯当选美国总统，她可能保留《通胀削减法案》和其他拜登时代的刺激政策，这预计将令基础工业、资本货物和公用事业板块表现优异;而由于监管审查力度加大可能导致并购活动减少，科技、电信和银行板块可能将表现不佳。瑞银还指出，随着电动汽车的普及速度加快但利润下降、以及美国汽车制造商对进口产品的防御力度减弱，汽车板块也将表现不佳。Including strategist Matthew Mish, the Democratic victory in the blue chip bond market will support the basic industrial, capital goods, and utilities sectors, but will be unfavorable for the telecom, technology, banking, and automotive sectors.
Futubull learned from UBS that the results of the US presidential election may only affect the credit market at the micro level, not at the macro level. Strategists including Matthew Mish stated in a report on Wednesday that in the blue-chip bond market, the Democratic victory will support the basic industrial, capital goods, and utilities sectors, but will be unfavorable for the telecom, technology, banking, and automotive sectors.
Although the impact of the US election on macro credit may be minimal, the new president will definitely take policy actions that will have an impact on individual industries. Since Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate, investors have been eager to learn more about her policy measures and how these policies differ from those of Republican candidate Trump and current President Biden.
UBS's report points out that if Harris is elected US president, she may retain the "Inflation Reduction Act" and other stimulus policies from the Biden era, which is expected to lead to excellent performance in the basic industrial, capital goods, and utilities sectors. However, due to increased regulatory scrutiny leading to a reduction in M&A activities, the technology, telecom, and banking sectors may perform poorly. UBS also points out that as the popularity of electric vehicles accelerates but profits decline, and as US automakers weaken their defense against imported products, the automotive sector will also perform poorly.
Overall, credit is expected to benefit in the weeks leading up to the election, following historical patterns. UBS's analysis of credit spread data since 1920 shows that investment-grade credit spreads tend to tighten in the three months before the election. More importantly, according to UBS's data, Democratic victories are usually more favorable for credit spreads than Republican victories. The bank's strategists state that the impact on speculative stocks should be small, but if Harris wins, the impact on energy, automotive, and aviation/aerospace/defense stocks will be more negative.
US election landscape has changed! "Harris trade" suddenly emerges
With the support rate of Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Harris consistently leading in opinion polls, it was once considered that former Republican President Trump, this chaotic US presidential election has prompted Wall Street to rush to adjust their bets.
Since President Biden withdrew from the race on July 21st and supported Harris, the prospects for this Democratic presidential candidate have improved significantly. After the Democratic National Convention last week, Real Clear Politics polls showed Harris with a nationwide support rate of 48.4%, while Trump had 46.9%. When Biden withdrew from the race, Harris and Trump had support rates of 46.2% and 48.1% respectively.
Some analysts believe that the 'Harris trade' is largely the opposite of the 'Donald Trump trade.' The 'Harris trade' may promote the decline of US bond yields, with the market possibly expecting reduced political resistance to the Fed's rate cuts, and medium- to long-term economic and inflation expectations not reaching the levels seen if Trump were elected. The 'Harris trade' may lead to a weaker US dollar; on one hand due to expected lower interest rates, and on the other hand due to reduced tariff concerns, without the impact of Trump's first term tariffs on Asian currencies and the resulting 'passive' appreciation of the US dollar.
However, for any investors hoping to trade the US presidential election, it is still too early to draw conclusions, as voter sentiment can be fickle. Therefore, strategists advise investors to wait and see how things develop, rather than locking in positions at this stage of the election cycle. While Harris's support in the polls is rapidly rising, this competition is still considered evenly matched.
Eric Diton, President and Managing Director of Wealth Alliance, said, "We will not trade during the election because the competition is too fierce. It made sense to trade when Biden was running because his support rate did drop in the polls. But now Harris is gaining momentum and no one can say for sure."
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