Q2 业绩拐点已现，产品结构优化推动盈利能力持续改善。Q2 利润率6.40%，环比提升3.41pcts，连续三个季度环比改善。从利润拆解看，毛利率环比持续提升，主要系服务器市场对高多层PCB 需求增加，推动公司营收、盈利水平持续改善。此外，据我们估算24Q2 摊销股权激励费用约1500 万元，加回股权激励费用后24Q2 归母净利润预计为0.85 亿元，利润率预计达到7.82%，环比提升4.83pcts。Matters:
The company 24H1 achieved operating income of 1.973 billion yuan (YoY +24.64%); net profit to mother of 0.096 billion yuan (YoY +903.93%); deducted non-net profit of 0.091 billion yuan (YoY +3356.73%); and gross profit margin of 19.69% (YoY +2.42pcts). 24Q2 achieved operating income of 1.089 billion yuan (YoY +29.52%, QoQ +23.05%); net profit of 0.07 billion yuan (YoY +412.84%, QoQ +163.30%); deducted non-net profit of 0.066 billion yuan (YoY +568.22%, QoQ +173.10%); gross margin of 20.36% (YoY+3.95pcts, QoQ +1.48pcts).
Commentary:
Q2 The inflection point in performance has been reached, and product structure optimization is driving continuous improvement in profitability. Q2 profit margin was 6.40%, up 3.41 pcts month-on-month, for three consecutive quarters of improvement. Looking at profit breakdown, gross margin continued to increase month-on-month, mainly due to increased demand for high-multi-layer PCBs in the server market, driving the company's revenue and profit levels to continue to improve. Furthermore, according to our estimate, the 24Q2 amortized equity incentive cost is about 15 million yuan. After adding back the equity incentive fee, the net profit for 24Q2 is estimated to be 0.085 billion yuan. The profit margin is expected to reach 7.82%, an increase of 4.83 pcts over the previous month.
AI servers are delivered in large quantities, and 800G switch products are expected to be released. AI server: The company has completed project certification for multiple customers, and 24H1 has achieved batch delivery; it is actively cooperating with customers to develop next-generation products. Looking ahead, Amazon said at the 24Q2 performance conference that demand for self-developed AI chips is strong, demand for PCBs for AI servers is expected to increase in volume and price, and the company is expected to benefit deeply. 800G switch: The company has obtained multiple customer certifications, achieved small-batch delivery at 24H1, and has the ability to deliver in batches; it is also developing next-generation 224G products. In the future, with the release of 800G products, it is expected to accelerate the upward trend in the company's performance.
R&D focuses on core dominant businesses, and new products are expected to be released one after another. 24H1, the company invested 0.116 billion yuan in R&D, +29.67% year-on-year. In the field of communication networks, 800G products have been delivered in small batches, and large-scale supply is expected to begin. 1.6T products are being developed. In the field of AI servers and peripherals, AI servers have been delivered in large quantities, and next-generation AI server products are being developed, increasing R&D investment in 400G/800G optical modules, etc. In the field of low-orbit satellites, we continue to invest in research and development of satellite interconnection technology, and progress has been made so far.
High-end automotive products are gradually being released, driving a steady increase in orders. The company completed the development and marketing of products such as autonomous driving, smart cockpits, power energy, etc., and promoted steady growth in orders for the 24H1 automotive sector.
In the future, as automobiles further develop towards electrification and intelligence, related businesses are expected to achieve steady growth.
Investment advice: The company has first-class technology, products and customers, and is expected to benefit deeply from this round of rapid development of the AI industry. The company's Q2 performance achieved significant year-on-year improvement. Considering the growth of the company's AI server and switch business, we maintained the 24-26 profit forecast of 0.186/0.545/0.816 billion yuan. Considering that the company is in a period of rapid growth at an inflection point in performance, with rapid expansion on the demand side, profit elasticity under high operating leverage is expected to continue to exceed expectations and maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The development of the AI industry falls short of expectations, the introduction of AI server customers falls short of expectations, the introduction of high-speed switch customers falls short of expectations, the rise in production capacity falls short of expectations, and the introduction of automotive customers and mass production of products fall short of expectations.
