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美元波动施压新兴市场货币 英伟达财报前夕科技股蓄势待发

The fluctuation of the US dollar puts pressure on emerging market currencies. nvidia's financial report is on the eve of the technology stock gathering momentum.

Zhitong Finance ·  Aug 28 20:39

Due to concerns about the recent large-scale sell-off of the US dollar, most emerging market currencies fell on Wednesday.

According to the Intelligent Finance APP, due to concerns about the recent large-scale sell-off of the US dollar, most emerging market currencies fell on Wednesday. At the same time, stock investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia's performance report, hoping to gain insight into the future trends of the technology industry.

Eastern European currencies, including the Polish Zloty, Czech Koruna, and Hungarian Forint, experienced significant declines among emerging market currencies, consistent with the largest decline in the euro since June. However, the Mexican Peso and Israeli Shekel went against the trend, with the Mexican Peso rebounding from its lowest point of the year and the Israeli Shekel remaining stable due to ongoing hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza.

In Asia, the rise of semiconductor stocks aligns with investors' expectations for Nvidia's upcoming performance report, although there are differing opinions on whether companies in the artificial intelligence sector can quickly achieve expected profit growth.

Piotr Matys, Senior Analyst at InTouch Capital Markets, pointed out: "The market is extremely concerned about Nvidia's earnings report, which is even considered to have a greater impact than the comments of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Nvidia's performance will undoubtedly set the tone for the entire technology industry and other asset classes."

On Wednesday, the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell for the second consecutive day as the US dollar rebounded. Despite widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, investors remain cautious about the possibility of a renewed strengthening of the US dollar due to the US presidential election and global geopolitical risks.

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Matys further analyzed: "Since Powell did not explicitly support a 50 basis point cut in the September meeting, some market participants believe that the US dollar has been oversold. Domestic factors have also set the tone for the trend of emerging market currencies, such as the sharp drop in the Mexican Peso yesterday due to controversial judicial reforms."

On Wednesday, the Mexican peso rose by 0.7%, marking the second increase in the past eight days. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira experienced a slight decline against the US dollar, with a brief plunge during the Asian session leaving traders puzzled. However, the market later returned to a more predictable state.

The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time in order to balance the soft economic growth and the inflation pressures arising from war expenditures.

Furthermore, the credit default swap (CDS) used to hedge against the risk of default in emerging markets has decreased, indicating that market expectations of the Fed relaxing its policies are helping stabilize the sentiment of risk assets.

Rajeev De Mello, fund manager at Gama Asset Management, stated: 'Even if Nvidia's performance is disappointing, we have taken precautionary measures. I still believe that Chairman Powell's clear statement about the Fed starting an easing cycle will influence the trends of local currency bonds and currencies in emerging markets.'

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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