The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. For example, the Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (NASDAQ:COLL) share price has soared 247% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 14% gain in the last three months. But this move may well have been assisted by the reasonably buoyant market (up 5.8% in 90 days).
Since the stock has added US$51m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last half decade, Collegium Pharmaceutical became profitable. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. Indeed, the Collegium Pharmaceutical share price has gained 84% in three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 0.4% each year. Notably, the EPS growth has been slower than the annualised share price gain of 23% over three years. So one can reasonably conclude the market is more enthusiastic about the stock than it was three years ago.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Collegium Pharmaceutical's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Collegium Pharmaceutical shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 59% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 28% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Collegium Pharmaceutical better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Collegium Pharmaceutical , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
