Core views

The company released its 2024 mid-year report and achieved net profit of 0.231 billion yuan during the reporting period, of which 0.077 billion yuan was in the Q2 single quarter. Q2 Due to delays in delivery of tracking brackets to the Middle East due to shipping to India, Q3 is expected to be confirmed. The company's tracking bracket orders grew rapidly in the first half of the year. The order scale was close to the full year of 2023 revenue. 86% of tracking bracket orders came from the Middle East, East Asia, and India, all of which are fast-growing markets this year, and the company's subsequent order growth rate is still guaranteed. The company's active overseas layout has led to a steady increase in global market share. In 2023, the global market share of the company's tracking bracket reached 9%, and the Middle East, India and Latin American markets blossomed more.

occurrences

The company distributed the 2024 interim report. During the reporting period, the company's revenue was 3.376 billion yuan, up 75.73% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.231 billion yuan, up 13.86% year on year; 2024Q2 company revenue in a single quarter was 1.562 billion yuan, up 41.26% year on year, down 13.90% month on month. 2024Q2 The company's net profit to mother in a single quarter was 0.077 billion yuan, up 30.40% year on year, down month on month 49.78%

Brief review

Delivery of the Q2 Middle East tracking bracket was delayed due to shipping factors, and Q3 is expected to confirm receipt. Q2's tracking bracket shipments fell 45% month-on-month, mainly due to: 1. Q1 had large order confirmation and a large base; 2. The Q2 Middle East market failed to be received before the end of the quarter due to tight shipping capacity. Q2's inventory was 2.612 billion yuan, an increase of about 1 billion yuan over the previous month, which is roughly equivalent to 2 GW tracking brackets.

In the first half of the year, the company tracked a rapid increase in bracket orders, which was close to the revenue level for the full year of 2023. By the end of 2023, the company's tracking stand order amount was about 4.6 billion yuan (revised caliber, including delivery of about 1 billion yuan); at the end of June 2024, it had reached 5.55 billion yuan. Combined with the company's tracking bracket revenue of about 2.5-3 billion yuan in the first half of this year (Q1 accounts for about 60%), the company's new order amount for the first half of 2024 was about 3.5-4 billion yuan. According to the tracking bracket, the average price without tax is about 0.4 yuan/W. Compatible with about 9-10GW.

Of the tracking bracket orders, 86% came from the Middle East, East Asia, and India, all of which are rapidly growing markets this year. The main reason is that the company positioned the Middle East, India, and Asia Pacific markets early in advance. The Middle East, India, and Asia-Pacific markets continued to grow rapidly this year. As of June, component exports to typical Middle Eastern countries (including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt, and Israel) and the Asian market grew at a year-on-year rate of 154% and 135%, respectively. India's module+battery exports grew 244% year on year, and the company's follow-up order growth rate is still guaranteed.

The active layout of overseas markets has led to a steady increase in global market share. Referring to WoodMackenzie data, the company's global market share of tracking brackets reached 9% in #2023, an increase of 4 pcts over 2022. The main reason is that since 2023, the company's Middle East, India, and Latin American markets have blossomed, and orders and sales have grown rapidly.

Profit forecast: The company is the leading domestic tracking bracket in the field of photovoltaic stent systems. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.667, 0.853, and 1.072 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 93.24%, 27.9%, and 25.65%, respectively. Earnings per share are 3.29, 4.21, and 5.29 yuan, respectively. PE corresponding to the closing market value on August 28 is 16.93, 13.23, and 10.53 times, respectively.

Risk warning: 1. Demand in the photovoltaic industry falls short of expectations. We forecast the company's shipments based on demand in the PV industry maintaining a 20%-30% growth rate in the next few years. If demand in the photovoltaic industry falls short of expectations, the company's glass shipments may also fall below our forecast; 2. The cost of raw materials will rise. The core raw material for the bracket is steel. If steel prices fluctuate greatly in the future, the gross margin of the company's products will also be affected; 3. Overseas market expansion progress falls short of expectations. Currently, demand for tracking stents products is mainly in overseas markets. The company's orders mainly come from India, the Middle East, Europe and other regions and countries. If the company's overseas market order acquisition progress falls short of expectations, the company's stent sales may fall short of expectations; 4. The domestic tracking stent penetration rate is not increasing as fast as expected.

China is the world's largest installed market for photovoltaic power plants, but currently the penetration rate of tracking brackets in terrestrial power plants is still at a low level. If the domestic tracking bracket penetration rate does not increase as fast as expected in the future, the company's tracking bracket sales may fall short of expectations.