“香格里拉”书写电动化转型新篇章。公司新能源技术路线全面布局，纯电、插混、增程都有储备并应用于主流车型，插混布局蓝鲸iDD平台、增程布局长安原力、插混与增程并举布局新蓝鲸动力。2023年公司自主品牌中PHEV占比为11.45%，2024年1-6月PHEV占比达到14.30%。我们认为，公司在PHEV赛道布局较早，未来有望成为公司自主品牌销量增长的主要动力。Investment summary
Changan Automobile has been founded three times, and its own brand continues to thrive. The company's sales have been increasing year by year in the past five years, with total sales volume of 2.5531 million vehicles in 2023, +8.82% year over year; sales volume in January-June 2024 was 1.3341 million vehicles, +9.74% year over year. Independent brands help increase performance and increase revenue levels.
In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 151.298 billion yuan, +24.78% year over year, and 2024Q1 revenue of 37.023 billion yuan, +7.14% year over year.
“Shangri-La” writes a new chapter in electrification transformation. The company has a comprehensive layout of new energy technology routes. Pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended range are all reserved and used in mainstream models. The Blue Whale iDD platform is plugged-in, the extended range layout combines Changan power, and the new Blue Whale engine is deployed with plug-in hybrid and extended range. In 2023, PHEVs accounted for 11.45% of the company's own brands, and PHEVs reached 14.30% from January to June 2024. We believe that the company deployed early on the PHEV circuit and is expected to become the main driving force for the company's own brand sales growth in the future.
Self-development+cooperation, intelligent two-line layout. The company built its own intelligent platform through SDA structure+Zhuge Intelligence, cooperated with Huawei and Ningde Times to launch the CHN platform and build high-end Avita models. The company signed a “Memorandum of Investment Cooperation” with Huawei, and will take a stake in the new Huawei company to achieve in-depth collaboration and strategic cooperation. The Avita production office matrix has accelerated. Two models, the Avita 11 and Avita 12, are already on the market. The Avita 07 is expected to be launched within 2024.
The overseas market layout has been accelerated, and a second sales growth curve has been established. The company proposed the Haina Baichuan strategy. It is expected that overseas market investment will exceed 10 billion US dollars and annual sales volume will exceed 1.2 million vehicles in 2030. Currently, construction of the Thai base has begun, with an initial production capacity of 0.1 million vehicles. In 2023, we achieved exports of 0.2364 million vehicles under our own brands, +39.23% year-on-year, and exports accounted for 9.26% of total sales. From January to June 2024, our own brand exported 0.2032 million vehicles, +74.85% year-on-year, accounting for 15.23% of the company's total sales.
Investment advice
We believe that the company's electrification transformation is smooth, and that cooperation with Huawei will enable further intelligent development. In the future, new products will be highly competitive, overseas exports will contribute additional volume, and the company's sales and profits are expected to grow steadily. Net profit to mother is expected to be 7.244/9.055/ 10.965 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, of -36.05%/+25.00%/+21.10% year-on-year.
The PE corresponding to the closing price on August 27, 2024 was 15.99X/12.79X/10.56X, respectively.
First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of fluctuating sentiment in the automotive industry; risk of price fluctuations and insufficient market supply of raw materials and components; risk of supply chain stability; risk of overseas operations.
