上半年公司累计完成发电量111.59 亿千瓦时，同比增长2.76%；累计完成上网电量106.08 亿千瓦时，同比增长2.82%；累计完成供热量486.48 万吨，同比增长12.43%。分电源来看，上半年公司风电发电量为26.46 亿千瓦时，同比增长0.65%，单Q2 增速为19.87%；火电总发电量为84.83 亿千瓦时，同比增长3.38%，其中天然气发电增长18.83%、热电联产下降3.31%、燃煤发电增长4.01%。Incident: Company discloses 2024 mid-year report. In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 6.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%; net profit to mother was 1.188 billion yuan, an increase of 27.12% over the previous year.
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H1's total power generation was +3% year-on-year, and wind power Q2 performed excellently
In the first half of the year, the company completed a cumulative power generation capacity of 11.159 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 2.76% over the previous year; completed a cumulative feed-in capacity of 10.608 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 2.82% over the previous year; and completed a total heating capacity of 4.8648 million tons, an increase of 12.43% over the previous year. In terms of power sources, the company's wind power generation in the first half of the year was 2.646 billion kilowatt-hours, up 0.65% year on year, with a single Q2 growth rate of 19.87%; total thermal power generation was 8.483 billion kilowatt-hours, up 3.38% year on year. Among them, natural gas power generation increased by 18.83%, cogeneration decreased by 3.31%, and coal-fired power generation increased by 4.01%.
Influenced by falling coal prices and increased revenue from alternative electricity, etc., the profitability of H1 increased year on year. Driven by electricity growth, etc., the company achieved revenue of 6.665 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.57% over the previous year.
The company's profitability increased year on year. The gross margin for the first half of the year was 23.43%, up 4.38 pct year on year, or a combination of falling coal prices and a year-on-year increase in revenue from alternative electricity. In the first half of the year, the company achieved a net investment income of 0.56 billion yuan, an increase of 7.79% over the previous year. Among them, investment income in joint ventures and joint ventures was 0.489 billion yuan, mainly contributed by thermal power, offshore wind power, and nuclear power. Overall, in the first half of the year, the company achieved a net interest rate of 21.72%, an increase of 4.13pct over the previous year; net profit to mother was 1.188 billion yuan, an increase of 27.12% over the previous year.
The company has many energy projects in hand, and the Changle project has been approved
Judging from the project reserves, the company is rich in energy projects, including energy storage, thermal power, wind power, photovoltaics, nuclear power, etc. The company has obtained approval for several projects and permits to work in the early stages of development, and is actively seeking more project opportunities. Recently, the company announced that the Changle Haihai Zone offshore wind farm project has been approved. The construction capacity of the project will not exceed 656 megawatts, with a total investment of 6.588 billion yuan. In the future, as the company's thermal power and offshore wind power projects advance, the company's profit volume is expected to rise further.
Profit Forecast and Valuation:
Considering the progress of the company's projects, performance in the first half of the year, and changes in electricity volume, it is estimated that the company's net profit from 2024-2026 will be 2.9, 3.3, and 3.8 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 9, 8, and 7 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: sharp decline in macroeconomics, sharp rise in coal prices, risk of lower electricity prices, lower downstream demand than expected, risk of industry competition being too intense, progress in the company's development and construction projects falling short of expectations, etc.