In the global electrification process, the leading technological and cost advantages of electric buses are the core barriers for Chinese bus exports.
According to the Zhitong Finance App, Huaan Securities released a research report stating that considering the demand for the used car market and the market of countries with inaccessible data, the global large and medium-sized bus market is approximately 300,000+ vehicles, with considerable potential for bus exports. As a means of production, the lower purchase cost is the core competitive advantage of Chinese buses. At the same time, in the global electrification process, the leading technological and cost advantages of electric buses are the core barriers for Chinese bus exports. It is recommended to focus on Yutong Bus (600066.SH), Xiamen King Long Motor Group (600686.SH), and Zhongtong Bus Holding (000957.SZ).
Huaan Securities' main opinions are as follows:
The global sales volume of large and medium-sized buses fluctuates around 0.3 million units, peaking at 0.389 million and reaching a low of 0.232 million units.
The global sales volume of large and medium-sized buses fluctuates around 0.3 million units, with a peak of 0.389 million units in 2016 and a low of 0.232 million units in 2021. Taking into account the main regions for Chinese bus exports missing from Marklines such as Central Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, it is estimated that the global market size of large and medium-sized buses is approximately 300,000+ vehicles. Currently, the global market for large and medium-sized buses is in a phase of demand recovery, expected to return to the sales volume scale of 2019 before the epidemic.
In addition to the Chinese market, the size of the bus market is quite significant in Central Asia and Russia, South Asia, and Latin America.
According to the statistics obtained from various national automobile associations and statistical bureaus, China is the world's largest bus market, with a historical average sales volume of 0.133 million. The average sales volume of large and medium-sized buses in Central Asia and Russia over the past five years is 0.0299 million, accounting for 14.5% of the global share; South Asia's average sales volume of large and medium-sized buses over the past five years is 0.0293 million units, accounting for 14.2% of the global share; Latin America's average sales volume of large and medium-sized buses over the past five years is 0.0289 million units, with a global share of 14.0%; the Middle East's average sales volume of large and medium-sized buses over the past five years is 0.025 million units, accounting for 12.3% of the global share; Europe's average sales volume of large and medium-sized buses over the past five years is 0.025 million units, accounting for 12% of the global share; Africa's average sales volume of buses over the past five years is 0.021 million, accounting for 10.4%; East Asia and Oceania's average sales volume of large and medium-sized buses over the past five years is 0.0187 million, accounting for 9% of the global share; Southeast Asia's average sales volume of large and medium-sized buses over the past five years is 0.0156 million, accounting for 7.6% of the global share; North America's average sales volume is 0.0122 million, accounting for 5.9% of the global share.
Latin America, the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, and African countries account for 90% of China's bus exports.
According to customs data, Latin America is the largest region for China's bus exports, with an export scale of approximately 0.02 million vehicles in 2023, accounting for 30% of exports and concentrated in Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, and other countries. The Middle East is the second largest region for bus exports, with an export scale of approximately 0.012 million vehicles, accounting for 17% of exports and concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, the UAE, Israel, and other countries. Central Asia and Russia are the third largest region for bus exports, with an export scale of approximately 0.012 million vehicles, accounting for 17% of exports and concentrated in Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other countries. Southeast Asia is the fourth largest region for bus exports, with an export scale of approximately 0.0116 million vehicles, accounting for 16% of exports and concentrated in Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and other countries. African countries have an export scale of approximately 7,000 vehicles, accounting for 10% of exports, and are also an important region for bus exports.
Updating replacement cycles and the replacement of electric bus structures are the core driving logic.
The transportation structure in the European market is diverse, and the bus market is characterized by stock competition. The core logic is updating replacements, and under policy-driven factors, the penetration rate of electric buses is rapidly increasing. The East Asia and Oceania large and medium-sized bus markets belong to mature and stable markets, and sales are driven by stock updates, while the penetration rate of new energy buses is low and in a stage of rapid growth. The Southeast Asian bus market has new demand for urban buses, with low penetration rate of electric buses and local manufacturing capabilities. The bus market in Russia and Central Asia has an urgent need for updating replacements, and financial support is the key factor for sales expansion; large buses and electric buses are the key breakthroughs for Chinese buses.
In the Middle East bus market, there is strong demand for tourism and pilgrimage industries, but it is easily affected by fluctuations in the national exchange rates and inflation levels. The demand for buses in the Latin American market is high, and the characteristics of bus demand replacement cycles are obvious. At the same time, the replacement of electric bus structures is more active. In the South Asian bus market, India has the largest market scale, but it is difficult for Chinese car companies to enter, while the Japanese car companies have a higher market share in the Pakistani market. In the African market, the proportion of used buses is high, the bus market has wide space, but the public transportation system is backward, and there is a strong demand for privately-owned light buses. The bus market in North America has a stable scale, and the characteristics of stock updates are evident, with a fast pace of electrification.
Risk Warning: Increased barriers to bus exports due to tense international political relations; delays in bus procurement plans in certain countries due to global economic downturn; delays in the electrification process of buses.
