扣非归母净利0.26 亿元，qoq-26.8%，yoy-42.7%。单Q2 毛利率与净利率分别为19.8%/10.4% ， 分别环比-0.2/-5.1pct， 销售/管理/ 研发/ 财务费用率分别为0.8%/2.1%/4.2%/-0.6%，分别环比+0.1/-0.4/+0.2/+0.4pct。考虑行业整体产能过剩背景下其盈利能力有所承压，我们下调公司2024-2026 年盈利预测，预计公司2024-2026 年归母净利润为1.50/1.79/2.39 亿元（原1.98/2.53/3.15 亿元），EPS 为1.80/2.15/2.87 元，对应当前股价PE 为15.8、13.3、9.9 倍。考虑到公司持续拓展海外客户、加速产品迭代，通过区域收入结构改善和新产品收入占比提升保证稳定毛利率水平，维持“买入”评级。There is an imbalance between supply and demand in the industry, and revenue and gross margin have declined
Kuaike electronically published its 2024 semi-annual report, and the company achieved revenue of 0.547 billion yuan in 2024H1, YOY -15.8%.
Net profit attributable to mother was 0.07 billion yuan, yoy -20.2%, and net profit not attributable to mother was 0.062 billion yuan, yoy -24.6%. H1 gross margin and net margin were 19.9%/12.8%, respectively, -1.3/-1.6 pct year-on-year, respectively. 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 0.289 billion yuan, QoQ +12.3%, YoY -16.3%. Net profit to mother was 0.03 billion yuan, qoq -24.7%, yoy -38.9%.
Net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.026 billion yuan, qoq -26.8%, yoy -42.7%. The gross margin and net margin for single Q2 were 19.8%/10.4%, respectively, -0.2/-5.1pct, and the sales/management/ R&D/financial expense ratios were 0.8%/2.1%/4.2%/-0.6%, respectively, +0.1/-0.4/+0.2/+0.4pct month-on-month, respectively. Considering that the industry's profitability is under pressure in the context of overall overcapacity, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 0.15/0.179/0.239 billion yuan (originally 0.198/0.253/0.315 billion yuan) and EPS is 1.80/2.15/2.87 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 15.8, 13.3, and 9.9 times. Considering that the company continues to expand overseas customers and accelerate product iteration, it guarantees a stable level of gross margin and maintains a “buy” rating through improving the regional revenue structure and increasing the revenue share of new products.
The junction box business is under pressure in the short term, actively expanding the overseas component customer 2024H1's junction box business to achieve revenue of 0.407 billion yuan, yoy -25.0%, gross margin of 16.4%, yoy-3.7pct, mainly due to increased competition for downstream components. The component sector transfers price pressure to upstream junction box accessories due to cost control requirements. In addition, the company is actively expanding overseas module customers and has established long-term friendly cooperative relationships with overseas module companies such as ADANI and HANSOL, so that the company's products are widely used in the construction of photovoltaic power plants in South Korea, India, Vietnam, Germany, Spain, Egypt, and the United States.
The connector business revenue and gross margin both increased year on year. Continuous product updates and iterations guarantee a high profit level. 2024H1's connector business achieved revenue of 0.125 billion yuan, yoy +34.0%, gross profit margin of 29.2%, yoy+4.4pct. Among large domestic photovoltaic connector manufacturers, the company's market share is at the forefront. Furthermore, the company actively improves product performance and develops new products, and maintains stable product prices and gross margin levels by leading the industry market.
Risk warning: The rise in raw material prices has led to a decline in profitability; the sales price of junction box products has declined further.
