一旦美联储结束加息周期转向降息，美股市场上“差生”将快速变为“优等生”。

As the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts from tightening to easing, astute investors are further asking which assets are likely to have investment opportunities as global monetary policy shifts, interest rates fall, and a new round of liquidity loosening cycle is imminent.

除了此前文章提及的医疗股,公共事业股外，本篇文章将为牛友们带来美联储降息周期下另一大受惠行业——必需消费品。

从本季度美国零售巨头业绩来看，均透露出一个信号——美国人正在消费降级。

In the case of the United States economy still being impacted by high inflation, consumers are being affected by tight wallets and discounted commodity prices. The trend of reducing non-essential expenses and preferring low-cost goods has a greater impact on high-end department stores and retailers of large non-essential items compared to discount stores and retailers focused on essential consumer goods.

From historical data, the essential consumer goods industry tends to perform better in interest rate cutting cycles.

Under the expectation of interest rate cuts, consumer giants have quietly risen.

This year, $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP.US)$ has been steadily rising, with a year-to-date increase of 16% and hitting a new historical high, approaching the performance of the S&P 500 index during the same period.

$Walmart (WMT.US)$ , and$Costco (COST.US)$ , tobacco giant $Altria (MO.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Philip Morris International (PM.US)$ , British consumer goods giant $Unilever (UL.US)$ , the giant of consumer goods in the United States $Colgate-Palmolive (CL.US)$ , the giant of beverage coca-cola (KO.US) , the giant of global hygiene products $Kimberly-Clark (KMB.US)$ , the giant of global daily chemical products $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$ Both have reached historical highs, with year-to-date increases ranging from 17% to 46%. As the world's second largest tobacco manufacturer $British American Tobacco (BTI.US)$ Although it has not yet reached a historical high, the year-to-date increase is as high as 35%.

In addition to these consumer giants, there are many ETFs related to essential consumer goods in the US stock market that investors should pay attention to. The five largest ETFs currently include $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$iShares Europe ETF (IEV.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Ishares U.S. Consumer Goods Etf (IYK.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Fidelity Covington Trust Msci Consumer Staples Index Etf (FSTA.US)$ , with a year-to-date increase of about 11%-16%.

What are the advantages of essential consumer stocks during an interest rate cut cycle?

Essential consumer goods refer to necessary items in life, including food, medicine, clothing, housewares, etc., which are essential commodities for people's survival. Since these goods are essential necessities, people are less likely to reduce their spending in these areas regardless of the economic situation. In terms of investment, the essential consumer goods industry is similar to finance and healthcare, belonging to defensive assets with strong resilience against market downturns.

Rate cuts are generally seen as bullish news for the consumer goods industry, due to its defensive characteristics.

First, rate cuts reduce financing costs, easing the financial pressure on businesses in production and operation, thereby improving their profit margins.

Second, a low interest rate environment promotes consumption, increasing consumers' disposable income. This means stable or even growing demand for essential consumer goods companies that provide food, beverages, and other basic necessities.

Furthermore, if the dollar depreciates due to rate cuts, it may lead to an increase in the prices of goods exported to the USA. However, this could also attract foreign investors to invest in the USA's essential consumer goods industry, as these industries typically provide stable returns during economic fluctuations.

Therefore, during periods of economic uncertainty, the consumer goods industry becomes a safe haven for investors seeking secure investments due to its demand stability.

Is the US expected to cut interest rates? Interest rate-sensitive long bonds, small-value stocks, biotech stocks and other assets have benefited from the rebound, and savvy investors who have deployed early have already gained profits! If you are still unsure about which assets to allocate during an interest rate cut cycle? How to allocate?Take a look at the "Interest Rate Investment Lazy Pack" course, which comes with the most comprehensive guide >>.

Editor/Somer