公司2024年上半年业绩短期承压，考虑到公司园区开发运营业务市场竞争力强，“两翼”业务后续增长空间可期，维持增持评级。2024年上半年，公司实现营业收入15.1 亿元，同比下滑20.9%；归母净利润5.6 亿元，同比下滑27.1%，净利率为37.2%。维持2024~2026年EPS 为0.92 元、0.99 元、1.06 元，维持目标价11.14 元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
Under the influence of factors such as shrinking the scale of land concessions and declining return on investment, the company's performance in the first half of 2024 was under short-term pressure; the “two wings” business continued to be strengthened, and the PV layout and industrial investment progressed steadily.
Key points of investment:
The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was under pressure in the short term. Considering the strong market competitiveness of the company's park development and operation business, the “two wings” business can be expected to have room for subsequent growth, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%; net profit to mother was 0.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%, and a net interest rate of 37.2%. Maintain EPS of 0.92 yuan, 0.99 yuan, and 1.06 yuan from 2024 to 2026, maintain the target price of 11.14 yuan, and maintain the holdings increase rating.
The company's performance fluctuated due to the reduction in park development carry-over, compounded by a decline in investment income and fair value change income. In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue fell 20.9% year on year. Among them, park development and operation business revenue fell 23.3% year on year to 1.15 billion yuan, accounting for 76% of revenue; green utilities revenue fell 12.1% year on year to 0.3 billion yuan, accounting for 19.6% of revenue. The weakening revenue from the park's development and operation business is greatly affected by the industry. As the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, the company's land concessions are under pressure, and the corresponding land concession area has also shrunk. It is expected that as the industry gradually stabilizes, business development will improve. The year-on-year decline in net profit to the mother was larger than revenue, mainly due to: 1) there was investment income from disposal of subsidiary shares in the same period of 2023, and there was no similar business in the first half of 2024, resulting in a 44.7% year-on-year decline in investment income; 2) the valuation appreciation of industrial funds in the first half of 2024 did not add up to the same period in 2023, causing fair value change income to fall 87.8% year on year; 3) the net profit from changes in fair value fell 268.6% year on year in the first half of 2024.
Continue to strengthen the “two wings” business and jointly empower the main business of park development and operation through industrial investment and green development. In terms of green development, in the first half of 2024, Sino-Singapore Green Energy and Zhongxin Chunxing added 179 MW, with a cumulative grid connection scale of 653 MW, achieving 32.7% of the 2025 2 GW target; in terms of industrial investment, the company pledged 4 new market-based funds, with a pledge amount of 0.16 billion yuan, driving total fund investment of 4.1 billion yuan, and 2 new direct investment projects.
Further focus on the main business and dispose of non-core assets. Sino-Smart, a holding subsidiary of the company, plans to transfer 100% of Sino-Singapore Heshun's shares. The initial transfer ratio is tentatively set at 51%, and is scheduled to be completed in 2024. According to the preliminary assessment, the assessed value of all Sino-Singapore Heshun shareholders' equity is about 0.57 billion yuan (net book value 0.06 billion yuan). If successfully transferred according to the plan within the year, it is expected to provide strong support for the performance.
Risk warning: The development progress of the park is lower than expected, and the development of green power and industrial investment is lower than expected.
