投资建议：维持“增持”评级。考虑下游餐饮需求较弱且竞争加剧，下调2024-2026 年公司EPS 预测至1.48(-0.23)、1.71(-0.42)、2.08(-0.54)元，考虑短期行业估值较此前下行，参考同业考虑公司中长期成长性较强，给予2024 年23X PE，下调目标价至34.1 元。Introduction to this report:
In the short term, the company is constrained by relatively weak demand for downstream catering and increasing margins of competition. Growth is slowing but profits are relatively stable. In the medium to long term, as catering recovers and the company strengthens its competitive advantage in customized products and services, it can be expected to return to growth.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Considering the weak demand for downstream catering and increased competition, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 1.48 (-0.23), 1.71 (-0.42), and 2.08 (-0.54) yuan. Considering the decline in short-term industry valuations compared to the previous period, referring to the industry considering the company's strong medium- to long-term growth, 23X PE was given in 2024, and the target price was lowered to 34.1 yuan.
2024Q2 results fell short of expectations. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 0.892 billion yuan, +4.87% year over year, net profit of 0.059 billion yuan year on year, +6.14% year on year after year after deducting non-net profit of 0.059 billion yuan, +11.29% year on year; 2024Q2 single quarter revenue of 0.429 billion yuan, +1.65% year over year, net profit of 0.25 yuan to mother, -3.36% year on year, net profit of 0.025 billion yuan year on year, +7.77% year over year. The company's revenue and profit growth slowed further in 2024Q2, which is expected to be mainly due to relatively weak downstream catering demand and increased industry competition.
Major customers continue to develop, and profits are relatively stable. Looking at 2024H1 by category, revenue from dishes and other/ baking/ deep-frying category/ cooking categories was +18.99%/-8.34%/-4.26%/+32.40%, respectively. The rapid growth rate of cooking and cooking categories mainly benefited from market development in group dinner scenarios. The decline in frying and baking was mainly due to a slowdown in the growth rate of core customer core single products or a decrease in order share; by channel, distribution/direct operating revenue was +1.77%/+8.54%, respectively, and distribution/direct operating margin was +4.16pc, respectively. t/-0.28pct. The sales revenue of 2024H1's five core direct customers was 0.314 billion yuan, +1.61% year over year. Among them, sales revenue for the first and second largest customers was -12.6%/-6.6% to 0.188/0.056 billion yuan, and the third-/four/five customers were +105%/+39%/943%, respectively. As of 2024H1, the number of major customers was 178, +21.09% year-on-year. Continued customer development helped the company recover its growth rate month-on-month.
2024Q2 gross margin was +2.4 pct to 25.0% year on year, mainly due to improved raw material costs, sales/management/R&D/finance rates were +0.5/+1.7/+0.2/-0.5 pct, respectively. It is expected that due mainly to increased publicity expenses and an increase in employee remuneration, the net profit margin to mother is -0.3 pct to 5.8% year over year.
Share comes first, and long-term growth can be expected. In the short term, the company has been affected by the pace of recovery in demand from the catering scene and increased marginal competition. It is expected that the company has actively participated in the Big B bidding to increase its share, but new contract renewal orders are lagging behind due to the impact of the contract cycle. In the medium to long term, the company will continue to innovate and upgrade products, actively explore categories and customers, further strengthen the competitive advantage of customized products and services, which is expected to gradually boost growth and return to growth.
Risk warning: Downstream catering recovery is weak, market competition intensifies, raw material costs fluctuate.
