Yongtai Energy (600157): Year-on-year growth in performance, broad room for growth

投资要点

事件：公司发布2024 年半年度报告。2024H1，公司实现营业总收入145.12 亿元，同比+3.8%；归母净利润11.89 亿元，同比+17.45%；扣非归母净利润11.12亿元，同比+10.66%；单季度来看，Q2 公司实现营业收入71.91 亿元，同比+4%，环比-1.8%；归母净利润7.23 亿元，同比+21.7%，环比+54.9%；扣非归母净利润6.41 亿元，同比+9.7%，环比+36.3%。

煤炭业务：Q2 产销环比上升。2024H1，公司实现原煤产量,销量为598.20/592.23万吨，同比-1.11%/-2.68%，其中洗精煤销量143.89 万吨，同比-8.68%。商品煤吨煤售价807.68 元/吨，同比-12.1%，吨煤成本369.62 元/吨，同比-3%。分季度来看， Q2 公司原煤产量/销量为359/355 万吨，同比-2.2%/-3.3%，环比+49.7%/+49.4%，其中洗精煤销量82 万吨，同比-17.9%，环比+32.9%。商品煤吨煤售价734 元/吨，同比-8.1%，环比-20.1%；吨煤成本350 元/吨，同比-5.1%，环比-12.5%。

电力业务：量价齐升，成本下降显著。2024H1，公司完成发电量193.7 亿度，同比+13.4%；实现售电量183.6 亿度，同比+13.6%，度电价格0.48 元/千瓦时，同比+0.67%。受益于长协煤兑现提升&动力煤价格回落，公司度电成本0.405 元/千瓦时，同比-8.87%。上半年，公司电力业务毛利为13.6 亿元，同比增加167.6%。

分季度来看，公司 Q2 发电量93.67 亿度，同比+12.7%，环比-6.3%；实现售电量88.87 亿度，同比+12.9%，环比-6.2%。

夯实煤炭主业，深化煤电布局。公司于2024 年8 月发布《发行股份购买资产预案》，拟以发行价1.29 元/股，交易对价不超过3.5 亿元购买天悦煤业资产。天悦煤业产能为60 万吨/年，保有储量389 万吨，主产高品质焦煤，属于市场紧缺煤种，收购完成后预计每年可增加净利润1.6 亿元以上。同时，海则滩煤矿作为公司全面实现煤电一体化目标的重点项目，将于2026Q2 实现第一个工作面投产，当年产煤300 万吨。2027 年投产后，当年产煤可达1000 万吨，按 2023 年市场平均煤价初步测算，可新增净利润约 44 亿元，投资回报率达50%以上。项目投产后，公司煤电业务有望深化，业绩或将实现大幅提升。

盈利预测：根据公司半年度经营情况，我们预计公司2024-2026 归母净利润分别为23.9/27.8/36.2 亿元，EPS 分别为0.11/0.12/0.16 元，PE 分别为10.31/8.88/6.82 倍，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示：国内经济复苏力度不及预期；煤炭价格超预期下行；基建固定资产投资资金使用不及预期

Key points of investment

Event: The company publishes its 2024 semi-annual report. With 2024H1, the company achieved total operating income of 14.512 billion yuan, +3.8%; net profit to mother of 1.189 billion yuan, +17.45%; net profit of non-return to mother of 1.112 billion yuan, +10.66% year over year; in a single quarter, Q2 achieved operating income of 7.191 billion yuan, +4% year over month, and -1.8% month on month; net profit to mother of 0.723 billion yuan, +21.7% year over month; net profit not attributable to mother Net profit of 0.641 billion yuan, +9.7% year over year and +36.3% month on month.

Coal business: Q2 production and sales increased month-on-month. 2024H1, the company achieved raw coal production, with sales volume of 5.982/5.9223 million tons, -1.11%/-2.68% year-on-year, of which washing refined coal sold 1.4389 million tons, or -8.68% year-on-year. The price of a ton of commercial coal was 807.68 yuan/ton, -12.1% year-on-year, and the cost of a ton of coal was 369.62 yuan/ton, -3% year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, Q2 Company's raw coal production/sales volume was 3.59/3.55 million tons, -2.2%/-3.3% year-on-year, and +49.7%/+49.4% month-on-month. Among them, washed refined coal sales were 0.82 million tons, -17.9% year-on-year, and +32.9% month-on-month. The price of a ton of commercial coal was 734 yuan/ton, -8.1% year over month, -20.1% month on month; the cost of a ton of coal was 350 yuan/ton, -5.1% year on year, -12.5% month on month.

Electricity business: Volume and price have risen sharply, and costs have dropped significantly. With 2024H1, the company achieved 19.37 billion kilowatts of electricity generation, +13.4% year over year; achieved sales volume of 18.36 billion kilowatt-hours, +13.6% year over year, and electricity price 0.48 yuan/kilowatt-hour, +0.67% year over year. Benefiting from the increase in Changxie coal cashout & falling thermal coal prices, the company's electricity cost was 0.405 yuan/kilowatt-hour, -8.87% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the gross profit of the company's electricity business was 1.36 billion yuan, an increase of 167.6% over the previous year.

On a quarterly basis, the company generated 9.367 billion kilowatts of electricity in Q2, +12.7% year-on-year, and -6.3% month-on-month; achieved sales of 8.887 billion kilowatts of electricity, +12.9% year-on-year and -6.2% month-on-month.

Consolidate the main coal industry and deepen the coal power layout. The company issued the “Plan for Issuing Shares to Purchase Assets” in August 2024. It plans to purchase Tianyue Coal assets at an issue price of 1.29 yuan/share and a transaction consideration of no more than 0.35 billion yuan. Tianyue Coal has a production capacity of 0.6 million tons/year, with reserves of 3.89 million tons. It mainly produces high-quality coking coal, which is a scarce type of coal in the market. After the acquisition is completed, it is expected to increase net profit by more than 0.16 billion yuan per year. Meanwhile, the Haizetan Coal Mine is a key project for the company to fully achieve the goal of integrated coal and electricity. The first working surface will be put into operation in 2026Q2, producing 3 million tons of coal in the same year. After production is put into operation in 2027, coal production can reach 10 million tons. According to preliminary estimates of the average coal price in the 2023 market, net profit can be increased by about 4.4 billion yuan, and the return on investment will reach more than 50%. After the project is put into operation, the company's coal and power business is expected to be deepened, and performance may be greatly improved.

Profit forecast: According to the company's semi-annual business situation, we expect the company's 2024-2026 net profit to be 2.39/2.78/3.62 billion yuan, EPS 0.11/0.12/0.16, and PE 10.31/8.88/6.82 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Domestic economic recovery falls short of expectations; coal prices have declined beyond expectations; infrastructure fixed asset investment funds have fallen short of expectations

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

永泰能源(600157)：业绩同比增长 成长空间广阔

Yongtai Energy (600157): Year-on-year growth in performance, broad room for growth

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

永泰能源(600157)：业绩同比增长成长空间广阔