费用管控能力有所提升；经营活动净现金流有所改善。费用方面，公司1H24期间费用率为16.1%，同比减少0.82ppt。其中：1）销售费用率1.0%，同比增加0.15ppt；2）管理费用率7.5%，同比减少0.02ppt；管理费用8.6 亿元，同比减少18.2%；3）研发费用率7.5%，同比减少0.68ppt；研发费用8.6 亿元，同比减少24.8%。截至2Q24 末，公司：1）应收账款及票据266.0 亿元，与年初基本持平；2）存货143.3 亿元，较年初增长3.2%；3）合同负债14.8 亿元，较年初减少38.3%，主要是按合同约定交付产品导致；4）经营活动净现金流为-11.6 亿元，上年同期为-23.8 亿元，货款回收增加；5）其他应付款为-25.5 亿元，年初为-13.3 亿元，主要是科研项目垫款增加以及科研拨款未到位导致。Incident: The company released its 2024 mid-year report on August 27. 1H24 achieved revenue of 11.48 billion yuan, YoY -17.9%; net profit to mother 0.9 billion yuan, YoY -11.8%; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.77 billion yuan, YoY -1.7%. The results were generally in line with expectations. At the same time, the company announced the “2024 “Improve Quality, Increase Efficiency and Value Return” Action Plan, which insists on promoting the company's high-quality development and is committed to becoming a world-class supplier and specialized supplier of airborne systems. Our comprehensive review is as follows:
Changes in industry cycles and policy adjustments affected performance; the 1H24 net interest rate level declined slightly year-on-year. Looking at a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 5.64 billion yuan (YoY -10.0%) and 5.84 billion yuan (YoY -24.3%) from 1Q24 to 2Q24, respectively; net profit to mother of 0.45 billion yuan (YoY +35.2%) and 0.45 billion yuan (YoY -34.8%), respectively. Affected by the industry development cycle and policies, the company's 1H24 revenue and profit declined year-on-year.
The company 1H24 completed 40% of the annual operating plan (28.52 billion yuan), and the total profit completed 45% of the annual operating plan (2.44 billion yuan). In terms of profitability, 2Q24 gross margin was 25.9%, basically the same as the same period last year; net margin was 8.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31ppt. The company's 1H24 comprehensive gross margin decreased by 1.22ppt to 25.5% year on year; net margin decreased by 0.19ppt to 8.6% year on year. Mainly stable.
Expense control capabilities have improved; net cash flow from operating activities has improved. In terms of expenses, the company's expenses rate during the 1H24 period was 16.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.82ppt. Among them: 1) sales expenses ratio 1.0%, up 0.15ppt year on year; 2) management expense ratio 7.5%, down 0.02ppt year; management expenses 0.86 billion yuan, down 18.2% year on year; 3) R&D expenses rate 7.5%, down 0.68ppt year on year; R&D expenses 0.86 billion yuan, down 24.8% year on year. As of the end of 2Q24, the company: 1) accounts receivable and notes were $26.6 billion, which was roughly the same as at the beginning of the year; 2) inventory of $14.33 billion, up 3.2% from the beginning of the year; 3) contract liabilities of $1.48 billion, a decrease of 38.3% from the beginning of the year, mainly due to delivery of products as agreed in the contract; 4) net cash flow from operating activities was -1.16 billion yuan, compared to -2.38 billion yuan in the same period last year, and 5) other payables were -2.55 billion yuan The billion yuan, which was -1.33 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, was mainly due to increased advances for research projects and lack of funding for scientific research.
Firmly promote scientific and technological innovation, cost reduction and efficiency; the strategic layout of the civil aircraft industry is progressing steadily. In terms of scientific and technological innovation, the company has firmly implemented the Aviation Industry Group's “30 Innovation Decisions”, fully undertook five major innovation actions, and achieved breakthrough results in a number of key aviation technology research. In the civil aircraft industry, in April 2024, China Aviation Airborne Systems Co., Ltd. officially settled in Minhang District of Shanghai to actively implement the strategic cooperation agreement signed between the Aviation Industry Group and the Shanghai Municipal People's Government to further build a highland for airborne systems and civil aviation engine research and development, led by the China Aviation Civil Aircraft Airborne Systems Engineering Center and the China Aviation Development Commercial Aero Engine Research and Development Base. The company is a leader in domestic aviation airborne systems, and the civil aircraft business is expected to usher in strategic development opportunities.
Investment advice: The company is the leading aviation airborne systems in China. Benefiting from the growing demand for aviation equipment and the continuous development of new productivity fields such as large aircraft, the company may be expected to maintain a good development trend in the future. We expect the company's net profit from 2024 to 2026 to be 2.05 billion yuan, 2.558 billion yuan, and 3.157 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 2024-2026 PE of 27x/22x/18x, maintaining a “careful recommendation” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; reform progress falls short of expectations; risk of product price reduction, etc.
