维持“增持” 评级，下调目标价至22.34港元/股，对应24年P/B为1.6 倍：公司24H1 归母净利润0.55 亿元人民币，同比-75.0%，受承保利润和投资收益下滑影响。其中，承保利润3.1 亿元人民币，同比-39.9%；承保综合成本率97.9%，同比2.1pt，主要为赔付率抬升3.6pt 至60.7%，而费用管控带来费用率-1.5pt 至37.2%；24H1 投资收益6.2 亿元人民币，同比-14.2%，预计主要为权益市场波动导致收益下滑；年化净投资收益率2.3%，同比0.1pt；年化总投资收益率3.3%，同比-0.7pt。考虑到盈利低于预期，下调2024-2026 年EPS 为0.22(0.91,-76.3%)/0.28 (1.07,-74.0%)/0.35(1.21,-70.7%)元人民币，考虑到利率下行预期下预计投资端承压，下调目标价至22.34 港元/股。Introduction to this report:
The company's 24H1 net profit was -75.0% year-on-year, dragged down by both underwriting and investment, and increased compensation led to an increase in COR. Digital lifestyle is the main driving force for premium growth; revenue from technology exports has increased rapidly, and virtual banks have further reduced losses.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating, the target price was lowered to HK$22.34 per share, corresponding to the 24-year P/B of 1.6 times: the company's 24H1 net profit to mother was 0.055 billion yuan, -75.0% year-on-year, affected by the decline in underwriting profit and investment income. Among them, the underwriting profit was 0.31 billion yuan, or -39.9%; the comprehensive underwriting cost ratio was 97.9%, 2.1 pt year over year, mainly due to the compensation rate rising 3.6 points to 60.7%, while the cost rate due to cost control was -1.5 pt to 37.2%; 24H1 investment income was 0.62 billion yuan, -14.2% year on year, which is expected to be mainly due to equity market fluctuations; annualized net return on investment 2.3%, 0.1 pt year on year; annualized total return on investment 3.3%, YoY- 0.7 pt. Taking into account lower earnings than expected, the 2024-2026 EPS was reduced to RMB 0.22 (0.91,-76.3%) /0.28 (1.07,-74.0%) /0.35 (1.21,-70.7%). The target price was lowered to HK$22.34 per share considering the expected pressure on the investment side in anticipation of declining interest rates.
Digital lifestyle is the main driving force for premium growth, and profit-oriented consumer finance businesses are actively shrinking: 1) 24H1 premium income of 15.238 billion yuan, 5.4% over the same period last year. By sector, health ecology premium revenue was 4.54 billion yuan, -9.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the company's reduction in investment, which led to a decline in the scale of medical care by one million. Inclusive, outpatient emergency, and middle and high-end medical care were all new growth points, with year-on-year increases of 270%, 321%, and 644%, respectively. 2) The digital lifestyle ecosystem achieved premium income of 7.41 billion yuan, or 27.0% year-on-year. E-commerce return insurance and air travel business customer demand was steady, and innovative businesses such as pet insurance increased more than 2.8 times over the same period last year.
3) Consumer finance ecosystem premium income was 2.184 billion yuan, or -21.6% year-on-year. The company actively reduced its business scale based on changes in the external credit environment. 4) Auto Finance's ecological premium revenue was 1.102 billion yuan, or 34.0% year over year, of which NEV premiums were 214.8%. The company actively expanded its business scale based on steady growth in passenger car sales.
Technology export revenue continued to increase, and virtual bank losses narrowed further: 1) 24H1 Technology's export revenue was 0.442 billion yuan, 65.5% year-on-year, mainly due to the steady increase in the number of domestic customers and customer unit prices and the demand for digital transformation of overseas insurance; net loss decreased by 0.165 billion yuan to RMB 82.6 million over the same period last year, mainly due to improvements in operating efficiency. 2) Zhongan Bank's net revenue was HK$0.255 billion, compared to 45.9%. The net loss ratio narrowed further by 71.7 points to 42.9%, and the scale effect gradually became apparent.
Catalyst: Capital markets are picking up.
Risk warning: long-term interest rates declined; exchange risk increased; virtual bank profits fell short of expectations.
