Sina Financial News on December 20, US Eastern time, Sina Financial Dialogue NASDAQMichael J. Sokoll, Senior Manager of Market Intelligence. Mike said: "the market has climbed to the so-called 'wall of worry', and the market price reflects the hidden worries of investors; the government bond market is growing and has come to a stage that is more risky, in urgent need of growth and expansion; the market expects revenue to grow by 5% in the first quarter of next year; the market reacted positively to the first phase of the trading agreement; retail stocks as a whole have been outperforming the market."

In the interview, Mike said that when investors are skeptical, market prices tend to go higher; while investors believe that things will improve next year, but there are still some hidden worries; the market reaction to the first phase of the trading agreement is positive, and came to a more risky, urgent need for growth andThe stage of expansion; the strength of consumer spending indicates a positive mood in the market.

The following is a transcript of the conversation:

Sina Finance and Economics: according to Bank of America CorporationFinancial markets will experience a "risky asset collapse" in the first quarter of the new decade, according to a study. Do you agree with this statement?

Mike: I think it's possible. Market prices have climbed to the so-called "wall of worry", which means that market prices tend to rise when investors are skeptical. So this worry is not impossible, because the market has been rising and even setting records over the past month or so. Valuations, for example, illustrate this point. However, investors believe that the economic situation will improve next year. Because low interest rates have given the market a boost. Of course, there are some hidden worries, whether it is Brexit or the uncertainty of the first phase of the trade agreement.

Sina Finance: the S & P 500 has hit record highs in recent weeks and has set its longest winning streak since November. What is the reason for such a rise? Do you think this phenomenon sends a further bullish signal?

Mike: yes. This is indeed a bullish signal. Now investors want to get into the market for a piece of the pie because they are afraid they will miss the uptrend. And investors will start to think about what will be the next catalyst for the stock market. Some people think it might be revenue. The market expects revenue to grow by 5% in the first quarter of next year and 10% by the end of 2020. But we should also be prepared that every quarter in 2019, analysts' forecasts are higher than the final revenue figures. Therefore, I don't think revenue is the recent driving force. But for the market in 2020, some catalysts are really needed.

Sina finance and economics: us housing starts grew faster than expected in November, rising 3.2%, while mortgage rates fell. What does this growth mean for the economy?

Mike: there are two advantages behind this. One is the increase in sales of new and existing homes, which often means that people now have the money to buy homes. Because it's one of the biggest investments people can make in their lives. As a result, market sentiment and wages must be sufficient to support the investment. Second, when people buy a house, they usually spend money on furniture and other things, and they spend their money on legal advice on mortgages. So this creates a lot of secondary economic activity, and these figures are very good for market sentiment and the economy.

Sina Finance: how does the market react to the first phase of the transaction agreement? Everything seems to have stabilized, and the market is looking forward to the upcoming economic statistics. Do you think we will get some optimistic revenue reports and economic data in the next quarter?

Mike: yes. I think the market reacted positively to the first phase of the trade agreement. Because the market has hit record highs recently. I think part of the reason is that some of the concerns and uncertainties that may cause the market are gradually being eliminated, which is good for the market. The second is revenue. As I said before, the market expects revenue to grow by 5% in the first quarter of next year. While this may not push the stock market higher, it is a good foundation.

Sina Finance: the spread between the two-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield climbed to 28.7 basis points on Wednesday, the highest level since November 2018. What does this mean for the market? Are investors becoming optimistic?

Mike: it does send a positive signal. A few months ago, investors would have worried about the narrowing of the spread, or even the upside-down of the yield curve, because it meant the spread was negative. The current phenomenon is more normal, which shows that the government bond market is growing and is synchronized with the stock market. It also shows that risk-taking sentiment in the market is growing. The market has come to a stage where it is riskier, in urgent need of growth and expansion, and fears of economic weakness are diminishing.

Sina Finance and Economics: Christmas is coming. There are only a few days left in the holiday shopping season. Some of the largest shopping malls in the United States predict that consumer spending this holiday will exceed expectations. Do you agree?

Mike: yes. According to the data I have learned, online shopping will set a new record, rising 14% to more than $140 billion, and this figure is not the total consumer spending for the entire holiday. Although the holiday this year is much shorter, about six days shorter. Tomorrow (December 21, EDT) is the Saturday before Christmas. This is a very important day for consumer spending, and good sales are expected on this day. After a slow start in November, consumer spending began to show some very positive signs. So I looked at some retail ETF, and these ETF tracked some retail companies in S&P500. In terms of their performance over the past two months, they rose by about 6% in October. That outpaced the 5.5% rise in the s & p. Therefore, in terms of its value, retail stocks as a whole have been outperforming the market. So it also indicates a positive mood in the market. (Chen Wenjie, a special correspondent at Sina Finance North America Station, is from New York.)