结论：公司2024H1实现收入 5.21亿元/-7.4%，实现归母净利润 0.23亿元/+6.1%，实现扣非归母净利润0.22 亿元/+2.0%，其中2024Q2实现收入2.38 亿元/-2.4%，实现归母净利润0.05 亿元/-54.7%，实现扣非归母净利润0.03 亿元/-70.0%。公司业绩有所承压，主要系消费者对成人护理产品认知的建立仍需时间，且整体消费力仍待修复影响，下调公司2024-2026 年EPS 预测至0.17/0.20/0.24 元（原0.19/0.21/0.25 元），对应下调目标价至10.10 元（原12.46 元）。维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company continues to promote innovation on the product side, strengthen online content e-commerce construction and offline health channel coverage on the channel side. The influence of its own brands continues to increase, and performance is expected to grow steadily.
Key points of investment:
Conclusion: The company achieved revenue of 0.521 billion yuan/ -7.4%, achieved net profit of 0.023 billion yuan/ +6.1%, and realized net profit of 0.022 billion yuan/ +2.0%. Of these, 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 0.238 billion yuan/ -2.4%, achieved net profit of 0.005 billion yuan/ -54.7%, and realized net profit of 0.003 billion yuan/ -70.0%. The company's performance is under pressure, mainly due to the fact that it still takes time to establish consumer awareness of adult care products, and the overall consumption power still needs to be fixed. The company's 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.17/0.20/0.24 yuan (previously 0.19/0.21/0.25 yuan), corresponding to a reduction in the target price to 10.10 yuan (originally 12.46 yuan). Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Actively enrich the product line and strengthen the expansion of multi-link channels. The year-on-year decline in the company's revenue was mainly affected by the decline in sales. 2024H1 adult/baby/pet care products revenue was -5.3%/-4.7%/-25.8%, respectively. The company focused on its own brands, launched the upgraded version of Absorbent Bao 2.0 and the Gold Pack series, and continued to optimize the product structure. At the same time, the company is actively strengthening channel development, focusing on e-commerce channels and reliable shopping malls for content such as Douyin/Kuaishou online, and reaching strategic cooperation with Jinjiang Fuxing Health Group offline, and extending channel boundaries by relying on health channels.
Raw material costs have been reduced, and gross margins have improved significantly. The company's 2024H1 gross profit margin was 21.93% /+4.4pct. Among them, the gross margin for adult/baby/pet care products was +5.4pct/+2.0pct/+6.6pct, respectively. The improvement in gross margin was mainly due to lower procurement costs of raw materials and higher prices for adult incontinence products. 2024Q2's gross profit margin was 23.77% /+5.1pct, net profit margin 2.18% /-2.0pct, sales expense ratio 15.18% /+6.0pct, management expense ratio 3.33% /-0.3pct, R&D expense ratio 4.84% /+0.1pct. The sharp increase in sales expenses was mainly due to cooperation with Huawei and increased brand promotion. The financial expense ratio -2.65% /+5.0pct was mainly due to a decrease in exchange profit and loss income.
Raw material prices are expected to stabilize, and the brand effect will gradually be unleashed. The company uses an order-based system to purchase fluff pulp. It is expected that the price of raw materials will be relatively stable in 2024Q3. There is a possibility that the price of 2024Q4 will rise in the short term, but the company is expected to maintain stable raw material prices through various measures. Currently, the company has the highest market share in the field of adult incontinence. It is expected that along with the increase in brand influence, the company's share will continue to increase, driving steady growth in performance.
Risk warning: Product development falls short of expectations; risk of losing core customers.
