Smart financial APP learned that, in addition to cboe global markets Volatility Index (VIX) futures, investors trying to understand market sentiment before and after the US presidential election can now directly focus on s&p 500 index options related to the election period. For the past few months, there has been a premium on the October VIX futures, indicating expectations that the election day on November 5th will lead to increased market volatility. Just a few weeks ago, traders could also monitor s&p 500 index options during that time, which reflect a greater possibility of significant market fluctuations after the vote.

Compared to options contracts expiring the previous day, call and put options expiring on November 6th near the current market levels are not much more expensive. However, Rocky Fishman, the founder of derivative analysis company Asym 500, stated that further over-the-counter spread trading implies a higher likelihood of significant fluctuations in the S&p index, especially downwards.

Fishman cited the example of the 5000/4800 put options spread, which is far below the current level of around 5600 points for the S&p 500 index. On November 6th, the price for buying put options at 5000 points and selling put options at 4800 points was $8.20, compared to $6.80 for contracts expiring the day before.

He stated that the price increase on the second day after the election implies a 20% higher chance for the S&p 500 index to break out of this range after the election.

It is reported that since US President Biden withdrew from the campaign and endorsed Harris on July 21st, the Democratic presidential candidate's prospects have significantly improved. Following last week's Democratic National Convention, polling from Real Clear Politics shows Harris with national support at 48.4% and Trump at 46.9%. When Biden dropped out of the race, Harris and Trump had support of 46.2% and 48.1% respectively. Overall, the market sees the two candidates as evenly matched.