Key points of investment:
Incident: Jiayou International announced its 2024 semi-annual results. Net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company was 0.759 billion yuan in the first half of 2024. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 50.74%, and the results were in line with expectations.
Mongolia's coking coal imports have maintained a high increase, and the company's basic market is solid and steady. Combined with the characteristics of China's coal resources, the structural shortage of coking coal has existed for a long time. Stable coking coal imports are an important guarantee for the steady development of China's coking steel industry chain. According to CCTD data, from January to July 2024, China imported a total of about 68.23 million tons of coking coal, of which the total number of imported coking coal from Mongolia reached 34.58 million tons, a year-on-year growth rate of about 29.96%, accounting for about 50.68% of China's total coking coal imports.
Combined with the deployment of the company's core resources in the Mongolian coal import chain, it is expected that this sector's business will increase steadily in the future.
Take the lead in laying out a pan-African multimodal transport network to empower the country's supply chain security. The company has always been committed to building a pan-African multimodal transport network to enable national supply chain security through the deployment of core road products+dry ports+land capacity+key routes.
The company maintained a high growth rate in the African segment in the first half of 2024.
The company announced the 2024 employee stock ownership plan, and the performance evaluation indicators show the company's confidence in development. On July 30, 2024, the company released the “2024 Employee Stock Ownership Plan (Draft)”. The company plans to use the 2023 net profit as the base, and the company's net profit growth rate from 2024 to 2026 is 50%/103%/153%, respectively.
The company issued the “2024 Semi-Annual Profit Distribution Plan”, and the cash dividend ratio accounted for 38.49% of net profit returned to mother in the first half of the year.
The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.3 yuan (tax included) per share. The total cash dividend is about 0.29 billion yuan (tax included), accounting for 38.49% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half year of 2024.
Based on the company's 2024 mid-year report, maintain the profit forecast and maintain the “purchase” rating: Combined with the company's 2024 mid-year report, considering the sharp increase in the company's main coking coal business volume in China and Mongolia, the steady growth of the cross-border multimodal transport business sector, and the profits contributed by African road and dry port projects, the company's 2024E-2026E net profit is expected to be 1.584, 1.779, and 2.01 billion yuan, corresponding PE is 10/9/8 times, respectively. Maintain Jiayou International's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The number of customs clearance vehicles at Ganqimaodu Port fell short of expectations, the price of main coking coal fell sharply, traffic on African highways fell short of expectations, and geopolitical risks.