客户降库存造成业绩暂时承压。分产品来看，24H1 公司医用内窥镜业务收入1.76 亿元（-16.74%），光学行业收入0.43 亿元（-23.13%）。医用内窥镜收入下滑主要是由于24H1 美国客户为了降低库存量，放缓了从公司拿货的节奏，造成公司短期内的营收下降，但美国客户最新一代内窥镜系统销量持续增长，公司作为其内窥镜核心部件的唯一供应商，随着客户库存量下降到较低水平，公司的发货有望回升到正常水平。Matters:
The company published its 24-year report, with operating income of 0.22 billion yuan (-17.70%), net profit of 0.071 billion yuan (-21.02%) to mother, deducting non-net profit of 0.065 billion yuan (-24.55%). 24Q2, operating income of 0.103 billion yuan (-13.91%), net profit due to mother 0.032 billion yuan (-21.43%), deducting non-net profit of 0.028 billion yuan (-28.25%).
Commentary:
Customer inventory reductions have temporarily put pressure on performance. By product, 24H1's medical endoscopy business revenue was 0.176 billion yuan (-16.74%), and the optical industry revenue was 0.043 billion yuan (-23.13%). The decline in medical endoscope revenue is mainly due to 24H1 American customers slowing down the pace of receiving goods from the company in order to reduce inventory, causing the company's short-term revenue to decline. However, sales of the latest generation endoscope systems from US customers continued to grow. As the company's sole supplier of core endoscope components, the company's shipments are expected to return to normal levels as customer inventory falls to a low level.
Business process switching to reduce policy risk. The American subsidiary Omec has been certified by American customers and can manufacture and sell finished endoscopic products. After agreement between the two parties, the US customer's order was placed by the US subsidiary Omec, and the US Omec shipped it to the US customer. This business process helps the company avoid international trade risks and ensure the safety of overseas business. In the second half of this year, the company will also further accelerate production capacity building and related certification of Thai subsidiaries to further reduce the potential impact of international policies such as tariffs on the company's business.
The machine business is growing strongly. The company's second-generation 4K endoscope system began mass production and sales after the Spring Festival. 24H1 sold more than 100 sets of complete equipment in the domestic market, and revenue increased 200% year-on-year. The company lays out products around key departments such as gynecology, head and neck, and neurosurgery. In addition to endoscopic products, it has also developed epitaxial products such as rotary cutting, electric cutting, and instruments. Related products will be registered and marketed one after another in the second half of the year.
Investment advice: Combined with 24H1 performance (customer inventory continues to decline), we expect the company's net profit to be 0.18, 0.23, and 0.29 billion yuan (the original forecast values for 24-26 were 0.22, 0.28, 0.35 billion yuan), up 21.5%, 28.4%, and 25.9% year-on-year, and EPS was 1.47, 1.88, 2.37 yuan, respectively, and corresponding PE was 19, 15, and 12 times, respectively. Referring to comparable companies, we gave the company a 30-fold valuation in 2024, corresponding to a target price of about 44 yuan, maintaining a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1. The dependence of a single major customer is high; 2. The promotion of the whole machine falls short of expectations; 3. Changes in industry policies; 4. Risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
