While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY) share price up 14% in a single quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. After all, the share price is down 20% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$366m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Incyte's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 19% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 4% compound annual share price fall. So investors might expect EPS to bounce back -- or they may have previously foreseen the EPS decline. With a P/E ratio of 128.99, it's fair to say the market sees a brighter future for the business.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
A Different Perspective
Incyte provided a TSR of 0.5% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 4% per year, over five years. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Incyte is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.