Unfortunately for some shareholders, the VirTra, Inc. (NASDAQ:VTSI) share price has dived 27% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. Indeed, the recent drop has reduced its annual gain to a relatively sedate 3.4% over the last twelve months.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, VirTra may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.4x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 19x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
VirTra certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
VirTra's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 50% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 42% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 44% over the next year. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 15%, which paints a poor picture.
With this information, we are not surprised that VirTra is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Key Takeaway
VirTra's P/E has taken a tumble along with its share price. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of VirTra's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with VirTra (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If you're unsure about the strength of VirTra's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
