维持“增持” 评级。24H1 公司实现归母净利约 10.16 亿元，同比+28.47%。Q2 公司实现归母净利润5.89 亿元，同比+67.83%，环比+38.02%。考虑制造业务逐步回暖下带来需求提升，调整公司2024-2026 年业绩：预计公司2024-2026 年的EPS 分别为1.40/1.60/1.80 元（+0.03/-0.06/-0.03 元），参考同行业公司，给予公司2024 年17.5 倍PE，上调目标价至24.5 元（原为24.17 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The increase in the price of 2024H1, tungsten ore and related products, and the expansion of the photovoltaic tungsten wire and tool business contributed to a high increase in the performance of the tungsten and molybdenum sector. At the same time, the profitability of the new energy materials and rare earth business improved month-on-month, jointly driving the company's performance growth in the first half of the year.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. 24H1 achieved net profit to mother of approximately 1.016 billion yuan, +28.47% year-on-year. Q2 The company achieved net profit of 0.589 billion yuan, +67.83% year over year and +38.02% month over month. Considering the increase in demand brought about by the gradual recovery of the manufacturing business, adjust the company's 2024-2026 performance: The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.40/1.60/1.80 yuan (+0.03/-0.06/-0.03 yuan), respectively. Referring to companies in the same industry, the company will be given 17.5 times PE in 2024, and the target price will be raised to 24.5 yuan (originally 24.17 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Prices of tungsten concentrate have increased, sales of photovoltaic tungsten wire have increased, and the tungsten and molybdenum sector has performed well. 24H1, tungsten and molybdenum sector revenue was +11.98% to 8.781 billion yuan, and total profit was +29.5% yoy to 1.427 billion yuan, contributing to the company's main profit; Q2 revenue was 4.74 billion yuan, +17% month-on-month, and total profit was 0.887 billion yuan, +64% month-on-month, with strong growth. In 24H1, the average price of domestic tungsten concentrate (65% WO3) was +13.04% year-on-year to 0.1344 million yuan, and the company's profit from its own production increased. Meanwhile, photovoltaic tungsten wire sales increased to 62.8 billion meters in the first half of the year. Cutting tool products made significant progress in the 3C field, and revenue and profit increased year-on-year in the first half of the year. The company has many projects under construction, such as mines, tools, and photovoltaic tungsten wire. As production capacity is completed and put into operation, the tungsten and molybdenum business will continue to improve.
Sales of new energy materials increased, and profitability improved month-on-month. 24H1, new energy materials business revenue was 6.3 billion yuan, -22.43% to 6.3 billion yuan, total profit -10.06% YoY to 0.246 billion yuan; Q2 revenue 3.001 billion yuan, -9% month-on-month; total profit 0.132 billion yuan, +16% month-on-month. The decline in revenue was mainly affected by falling raw material prices and increased competition in the industry. However, the company's lithium cobalate products are steadily leading in the industry. Ternary materials have advantages such as high voltage and high power, and sales continue to rise. As the bottom of the industry stabilizes, performance is expected to continue to improve.
The profit of magnetic materials improved quarterly, and the divestment of part of the real estate yielded disposal proceeds. 24H1 rare earth sector revenue was 2.054 billion yuan, -21.48% year over year, total profit 0.117 billion yuan, -23.50% year over year; Q2 revenue was 1.14 billion yuan, +25% month-on-month, and total profit was 0.077 billion yuan, +92.5% month-on-month.
The sales volume of 24H1 magnetic materials was +13% year-on-year, and profitability increased quarterly, but rare earth performance declined due to the subsidiary's integration and divestment of the rare earth smelting and separation business, falling raw material prices, and industry competition intensifying product prices. 24H1 Real Estate's revenue was 0.025 billion yuan, down 67.47% year on year. Total profit was 0.094 billion yuan, up 0.174 billion yuan year on year, mainly due to the disposal of Chengdu Tengwangge Real Estate's property shares and confirmed investment income of 0.145 billion yuan.
Risk warning: Prices of tungsten products are falling, industry competition is fierce, market demand falls short of expectations, etc.