Smart Finance and Economics APP learned that the World Health Organization has launched a global strategic preparedness and response plan to stop the spread of monkeypox among individuals through coordinated efforts at the global, regional, and national levels. In addition, the Ministry of Public Health in Thailand recently held a press conference confirming the country's first case of the Ib variant strain of monkeypox. This is also the second global case and the first case in Asia of the Ib variant strain since the WHO raised a global public health alarm for monkeypox. Unlike past cases where the monkeypox virus was mainly transmitted through direct contact or sexual contact, this Ib-type mutant virus discovered this time can also be transmitted through secretions (such as respiratory droplets), rashes, or contaminated items. Monkeypox concept stocks in the US rose before the market opened, with Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP.US) up over 8%, Emergent Biosolutions (EBS.US) up over 2%, and Applied DNA Sciences (APDN.US) up nearly 2%.

Rapid Mutation of the Mpox Virus Strain in Congo Draws Global Attention.

Scientists studying the new strain of Mpox virus spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have stated that the speed of mutation of this virus exceeds expectations and often occurs in regions where experts lack the funds and equipment to properly track the virus. This means there are multiple unknowns regarding the virus itself, its severity, and transmission methods, increasing the complexity of epidemic response. Six scientists from Africa, Europe, and the USA revealed this information.

Mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, has been a public health issue in parts of Africa since 1970, but it did not attract global attention until 2022, prompting the World Health Organization to declare a global health emergency. The status ended after 10 months.

A new strain of the virus called Ib-type has once again attracted global attention. This happened after the World Health Organization declared a new health emergency event. Ib-type is a mutant version of the I lineage, which is a strain of the Mpox virus transmitted through contact with infected animals that has been prevalent in Congo for decades. Mpox usually causes flu-like symptoms and pustular lesions, and may even lead to death.

According to data from the World Health Organization, the Congo has had over 18,000 suspected cases of I and Ib type, resulting in 615 deaths this year. Last month, four African countries also reported 222 confirmed cases of Ib type, and Sweden and Thailand each reported a case with a history of travel to Africa.

Dr. Dimi Ogoi, an infectious disease expert at the University of Nigeria, Niger Delta University Hospital, and chairman of the WHO mpox emergency committee, said, "I am concerned that we are acting blindly in Africa." He first warned in 2017 that monkeypox could be transmitted sexually, and now sexual transmission has become the recognized route of transmission for the virus.

"We do not have a deep enough understanding of the epidemic, and if we do not understand the severity of the epidemic, we will have difficulty addressing issues such as transmission dynamics, disease severity, and disease risk factors," said Dr. Ogoi. "And I am concerned that the virus appears to be mutating and producing new strains."

He pointed out that in Nigeria, it took five years or longer for the IIb lineage to evolve to the extent of sustained transmission in humans, while the Ib lineage accomplished this in less than a year.

The World Health Organization estimates that infections with the Ib subtype will appear in mid-September 2023. Gene sequencing shows that they carry a mutation called APOBEC3, which is a hallmark of human adaptation.

Dr. Miguel Paredes from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle said, "All cases of mpox transmitted from person to person have this APOBEC mutation feature, which means it is mutating faster than we expected."

Paredes and other scientists say that the response to the simultaneous mpox outbreaks has become complex. In the past, mpox was mainly transmitted through contact between humans and infected animals. Scientists say this continues to contribute to the increase in cases of the Congo I lineage, partly due to deforestation and increased consumption of bushmeat.

Dr. Salim Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist from South Africa and chairman of the Africa Centre for Disease Control's mpox advisory committee, said that the mutated Ib and IIb strains can now be regarded as sexually transmitted diseases. Most cases of the mutated Ib strain occur in adults and were initially spread by a virus that was prevalent among female sex workers in the South Kivu province of the Congo.

The virus can also be spread through close contact with infected individuals, which is likely the reason for the infection of the Ib strain in the pediatric population, especially in crowded living conditions in displacement camps in Burundi and eastern Congo. These conditions may be one of the reasons for this situation.

The World Health Organization states that children, pregnant women, and people with weak immune systems are at greater risk of severe mpox illness and death. Type I usually leads to more severe illness with a mortality rate of 4%-11%, while the mortality rate for Type II is about 1%. Ogoyna stated that data from Congo suggests that few people die from the new Ib version, but he is concerned that some data has been confused.

More research is urgently needed, but three teams tracking the mpox outbreak in Africa say they cannot even get the chemical drugs needed for diagnostic tests. Scientists say that without this, it will be very difficult to develop response measures, including vaccination strategies.

Global diffusion of the epidemic and prevention actions in Indonesia

As global attention to the new strain of mpox virus continues to rise, Indonesia, as the host country for an important international forum, is taking rapid action to ensure public health safety. Prior to the forum held in Bali with African countries, Indonesian Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin announced strengthened monitoring measures for mpox, including screening for incoming passengers at airports in Jakarta and Bali, and vaccination for health workers on the island. This initiative not only reflects Indonesia's high alertness to global health issues, but also its sense of responsibility on the international stage.

Indonesia currently has no confirmed cases of the more dangerous Ib type of mpox strain, but the preventive measures taken by the authorities demonstrate a serious attitude toward the potential threat of the epidemic. By strengthening monitoring and vaccination, Indonesia not only protects its own citizens but also provides a safer conference environment for the upcoming 1,500 participants, including heads of state from Zimbabwe and Rwanda.

In addition, Indonesia's active efforts in vaccine procurement, including the remaining 40 doses from the 2022 vaccine purchase, an expected 1,600 doses from Denmark, and the consideration of obtaining more supplies from Japan, demonstrate the country's efforts in vaccine acquisition. Against the backdrop of the global health emergency, this series of actions by Indonesia not only helps to control the domestic spread of the epidemic but may also have a positive impact on regional and even global capital markets, especially in the tourism and medical care industries.

Capital market reaction and dynamics in the medical industry

Meanwhile, neighboring Thailand has become the first country in Asia to confirm infection with the new strain of mpox, further highlighting the importance of regional cooperation in epidemic prevention and control. With the approaching Indonesia-Africa Forum, Indonesia's preventive measures and quick response to the epidemic may serve as a model for other countries in public health crisis management. While the global capital market closely watches the development of the epidemic, these actions by Indonesia may also enhance investors' confidence in the country's market, especially in stocks related to medical care and tourism.

It is understood that developers of Monkeypox vaccines include Tonix Pharmaceuticals, Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY.US), and GeoVax Labs (GOVX.US), while Emergent BioSolutions has obtained approval for a vaccine and therapy targeting smallpox (which is related to Monkeypox virus).

Suppliers of Monkeypox testing products and services include Laboratory Corp of America (LH.US), Quest Diagnostics (DGX.US), Co-diagnostics (CODX.US), Roche (RHHBY.US), Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US), and Applied DNA Sciences.

It is worth mentioning that Trinity Biotech (TRIB.US) saw its stock price rise 81% before the market opened on Tuesday. The diagnostic company had previously raised its sales guidance for 2024 and indicated that it is increasing production capacity.

Trinity Biotech stated that, due to increased demand, the company has expanded the production capacity of the TrinScreen HIV testing product and raised the sales forecast for this product in 2024 from 8 million to 10 million USD.

According to a statement, the company has also increased the production capacity of its FlexTrans virus transportation medium, as an outbreak of monkeypox is expected to increase demand.