国内产能布局完善，客户合作关系稳固。公司坚持本地化生产、辐射周边客户战略部署，在华东、华南、华中、东北、西北、西南等锂电池行业重点区域形成生产基地布局，有效辐射周边下游客户，深化客户合作关系，形成较为完善产能地域覆盖；另一方面，报告期内公司投资建设深圳新能源电池精密结构件生产基地，进一步扩张华南地区产能布局，结构件产能进一步提升。Key points of investment
Incident: Kodali discloses its 2024 semi-annual report.
The results for the first half of the year fell close to the median forecast, in line with expectations. With 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 5.446 billion yuan, +10.75%; net profit to mother of 0.648 billion yuan, +27.38% year over year; net profit of 0.628 billion yuan without mother, +26.68% year over year; basic earnings per share of 2.40 yuan/share, +10.60% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the company achieved revenue of 2.937 billion yuan in 24Q2, +13.35%/+17.06% YoY; net profit to mother of 0.339 billion yuan, or +26.97%/+9.71% YoY. The company's performance fell close to the median of the previously released performance forecast, in line with expectations.
The domestic production capacity layout is perfect, and the customer partnership is stable. The company adheres to the strategic deployment of localized production and radiating surrounding customers, forming a production base layout in key regions of the lithium battery industry such as East China, South China, Central China, Northeast China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, effectively radiating surrounding downstream customers, deepening customer partnerships, and forming a better geographical coverage of production capacity. On the other hand, during the reporting period, the company invested in the construction of a new energy battery precision structural parts production base in Shenzhen to further expand the production capacity layout in South China and further increase the production capacity of structural components.
Actively expand the international market, and the overseas layout is progressing steadily. The company promoted the construction of overseas production bases in Germany, Sweden, Hungary, etc., in an orderly manner, and implemented the strategy of supporting production bases close to major customers to enhance long-term stable supply chain cooperation. On the other hand, in the first half of 2024, the company and its subsidiary Kodali of Hungary jointly funded the establishment of American Kodali, accounting for 85%/15% of the investment, which greatly expanded the international market share and enhanced corporate competitiveness. Production sites in Sweden and Hungary have now been put into production, and the US base is expected to release initial production capacity in 2025; demand from overseas customers is expected to grow steadily, and production capacity will be further released.
The customer structure is high quality, and the market share is expected to increase further. The company has formed long-term stable strategic partnerships with leading manufacturers in the CATL, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, China Airlines, Tesla, etc., to give full play to the core customer demonstration effect, drive the continuous gathering of high-quality customer resources from other industries, and further increase in market share expectations.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We expect the company to achieve revenue separately in 2024-2026
12.894/15.801/18.405 billion yuan, +22.66%/22.55%/16.48% year-on-year, respectively; achieved net profit of 1.338/1.653/2.097 billion yuan, respectively, and +11.44%/23.48%/26.92% year-on-year respectively; corresponding PE was 14.52/11.76/9.27 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream demand falls short of expectations; industry competition increases risks; risks of domestic and foreign policy changes; new capacity construction progress falls short of expectations.