引领装载机电动化浪潮，推动多产品电动化率提升装载机工况场景固定、设备相对集中、充电站建设难度较低，电动装载机环保属性强、全生命周期成本低，近年来发展迅速，工程机械协会数据显示，2024 年5月全行业销售电动装载机1250 台，同比增长408.13%。公司引领装载机电动化浪潮，电动装载机产品覆盖完善，未来有望持续受益。Domestic loader leaders are moving global, and profit levels continue to improve
The company's products cover earthwork machinery, construction machinery parts, and prestressed machinery. It ranked first in the loader industry in 2023. The domestic market share of excavators exceeded 11%, and is expected to continue to benefit from a recovery in domestic demand and a high increase in overseas exports.
We expect the company to achieve net profit of 1.34/1.791/2.253 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, EPS 0.68/0.90/1.14 yuan/share, respectively. The current stock price corresponding PE is 14.0/10.5/8.3 times, respectively. The company's valuation is lower than the average of comparable companies in the industry. The company is a leading domestic loader. The triple logic resonance of lithium electrification, internationalization, and mixed transformation has resonated. The company's excavator and loader business continues to improve and is covered for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
Leading the wave of loader electrification, promoting the electrification rate of multiple products, fixed loading scenarios, relatively concentrated equipment, low charging station construction, electric loaders have strong environmental protection properties and low life cycle costs. They have developed rapidly in recent years. According to data from the Construction Machinery Association, the entire industry sold 1,250 electric loaders in May 2024, an increase of 408.13% over the previous year. The company is leading the wave of electrification of loaders. The coverage of electric loader products is perfect, and it is expected that it will continue to benefit in the future.
After more than 20 years of global layout, going overseas to accelerate the company's growth. In 2002, Liugong began the path of global layout. As of 2023, the company provided sales and service support to overseas customers through more than 2,700 outlets with more than 300 dealers. The company earned 11.462 billion yuan (yoy +41%) outside of China in 2023, and future growth is expected to accelerate as the company accelerates overseas.
Mixed reform+equity incentives enhance endogenous motivation, and issue convertible bonds to optimize production capacity. In 2022, the company completed mixed reform and overall listing to achieve equity optimization. In 2023, the company released a stock option incentive plan. For the first time, 53.14 million stock options were granted. The incentives covered the company's core employees, and performance assessment indicators were set, which greatly stimulated employees' enthusiasm. In March 2023, the company issued 3 billion yuan of convertible bonds for factory upgrades, component capacity expansion, and “three modernization” research and development to further enhance overall manufacturing capacity. Through mixed reform, equity incentives, and capital raising to expand production, the company's overall competitiveness was greatly enhanced.
Risk warning: Domestic recovery falls short of expectations; Denso's development falls short of expectations; overseas expansion falls short of expectations.