结论：公司2024H1 实现收入 30.88 亿元/-10.1%，实现归母净利润0.38 亿元/-77.8%，实现扣非归母净利润0.13 亿元/-91.0%。其中2024Q2 实现收入19.53 亿元/-16.0%，实现归母净利润1.28 亿元/-23.7%，实现扣非归母净利润1.19 亿元/-27.9%。公司业绩短期承压，考虑公司需求与地产链相关度较高，消费力仍待修复，因此下调2024-2026 年EPS 预测至0.37/0.44/0.54 元（原0.51/0.59/0.68 元），参考可比公司估值，下调目标价至8.14 元（原10.05 元）。Introduction to this report:
The company's performance was pressured by the external environment in the short term, but it continues to strengthen its omni-channel layout, actively promote innovation on the product side, and increase the share of smart toilet revenue, and is expected to continue to exert its brand influence.
Key points of investment:
Conclusion: The company achieved revenue of 3.088 billion yuan/ -10.1% in 2024H1, achieved net profit of 0.038 billion yuan/ -77.8%, and achieved net profit without deduction of 0.013 billion yuan/ -91.0%. Among them, 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 1.953 billion yuan/ -16.0%, realized net profit attributable to mother 0.128 billion yuan/ -23.7%, and realized net profit of 0.119 billion yuan/ -27.9% after deducting non-return to mother. The company's performance is under pressure in the short term. Considering the high correlation between the company's demand and the real estate chain, consumption power still needs to be repaired, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.37/0.44/0.54 yuan (originally 0.51/0.59/0.68 yuan). Referring to comparable company valuations, the target price was lowered to 8.14 yuan (originally 10.05 yuan).
Smart toilets have grown significantly, and overseas business is expanding smoothly. 1) By product: sanitary ceramics/faucet hardware/bathroom furniture/bathtub room/ceramic tile revenue was -6.1%/-12.1%/-0.2%/-14.2%/-37.4%, respectively. Among them, sales volume of smart toilets was +2.6% YoY, and revenue was -7.7% YoY. 2) Channel subchannel: distribution/direct sales -9.7%/-15.9% respectively. Among them, revenue from distribution and retail/e-commerce /home improvement/engineering channels was -6.3%/-12.6%/-6.0%/-17.8%, respectively. The company strengthened the layout of the empty market through rapid store construction and regular support, and the channels gradually diversified. The company increased its dealer layout and specialty store construction in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and overseas revenue was +178.3% year-on-year.
Expense rates have increased, and profitability is under pressure in the short term. The gross margin of 2024H1 sanitary ceramics/faucet hardware/bathroom furniture was -4.3%/-1.0%/-2.6%, respectively, and the 24H1 gross profit margin was 27.03% /-2.4pct, which was mainly due to increased price competition in the industry. The net profit margin of 2024H1 was 1.17% /-3.8pct, and each cost ratio increased. 2024H1 management expense ratio 11.22% /+2.0pct, R&D cost rate 5.48% /+1.1pct, finance cost ratio 1.09% /+0.7pct (interest expenses are no longer capitalized after construction projects corresponding to special loans are consolidated). The sales expense ratio of 7.60%/-0.9% is mainly due to the fact that the company will adjust the dealer's subsidy fee to a price discount starting 2023H2, thereby reducing the dealer subsidy calculation.
The channels are diversified and expanded, and the brand advantages are remarkable. The company insists on deepening retail channels and has built an omni-channel marketing system covering retail, e-commerce, home improvement, engineering, etc. on this basis. The company's retail stores, e-commerce, and home improvement customers account for a total revenue share of 77.16%, and engineering channel revenue accounts for 22.84%, forming a relatively balanced business distribution. The company's three independent brands have the highest market influence. They derive tiles and whole-house customization on the basis of covering all categories of sanitary ware, and are expected to seize share under the industry trend where integrated demand is prevalent.
Risk warning: Price competition in the industry is intensifying; market acceptance of high-priced new products is low.