Key points of investment
Key points of the announcement: 2024Q2's revenue for a single quarter was 2.237 billion yuan, or -31.7%/+48.6% year-on-month; Q2 net profit to mother for a single quarter was -1.555 billion yuan (-1.088 billion yuan for 2023Q2, -1.016 billion yuan for 2024Q1), slightly lower than the median performance forecast; Q2 net profit without return to mother for a single quarter was -1.55 billion yuan (2023Q2 was -0.726) billion yuan, 2024Q1 is -1.02 billion yuan).
The Q2 performance was basically in line with expectations, and bicycle losses decreased month-on-month. 1) Revenue: The year-on-year decline in both sales volume and ASP affected the year-on-year revenue performance. 24Q2 announced sales volume of 0.0179 million vehicles, -10.9%/+76.7% YoY, and ASP 0.125 million yuan, respectively -23.3%/-15.9% YoY. 2) Gross profit margin: The company's Q2 gross profit margin was -7.51%, -5.2/-1.1 pct, year-on-month, respectively. 3) Expense ratio: The cost rate for the period decreased by 2.6 pct month-on-month, and the 24Q2 sales/management/ R&D expenses ratio was 26.3%/10.7%/15.3%, respectively, +8.4/4.8/+5.9pct, respectively, and +4.2/+1.0/ -5.7 pct month-on-month, respectively. 4) Net profit: consolidated statement of caliber bike profit -0.0867 million yuan (after deduction), profitability improved month-on-month (2024Q1 = -0.102 million yuan). In the end, the company achieved net profit to mother of 1.555 billion yuan in a single quarter.
Endogeness+cooperation go hand in hand to achieve comprehensive development. 1) Join hands with Huawei Smart Choice to create a high-end brand and enjoy the world. BAIC is one of the earliest car companies to cooperate with Huawei, and HI+ Smart Select has carried out multi-faceted strategic cooperation. In 2024, the first model of the BAIC Blue Valley and Huawei Smart Choice collaboration, the Xinjie S9, was officially launched, breaking 8,000 units in 20 days. 2) Jihu brand marketing & channel capabilities have been steadily improved. The company formulates differentiated marketing strategies with one vehicle, one policy, one city, one policy, and boldly innovates in marketing through new media cooperation methods such as “Walking with Hui”. As of June 30, 2024, the total number of operating stores was 224. Meanwhile, overseas teams have begun to take shape.
Profit forecast and investment rating: In the 20 days since the launch of XIANGJIE S9, the performance was slightly better than our expectations. We raised the company's 2024-2026 performance forecast, and the net profit forecast to mother was -4.098/ -1.974/0.86 billion yuan (originally -42.87/-23.16/0.795 billion yuan). We maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry price wars increase risks; risk of new vehicle sales falling short of expectations; intelligent technological innovation falling short of expectations, etc.