行业监管趋严，龙头市占率有望提升2024 年4 月，《电动自行车行业规范条件》等政策文件对电动自行车的生产标准和锂电池使用标准等提出更高要求，监管政策趋于严格，中小企业持续出清。Incidents:
On August 22, 2024, Emma Technology released its 2024 semi-annual report: 2024 H1. The company achieved operating income of 10.59 billion yuan, +3.7% year over year; net profit to mother 0.95 billion yuan, +6.2% year on year; gross profit margin 17.8%, +2.3 pct year on year; net profit margin of 9.0% year on year, +0.2 pct year on year.
Investment highlights:
Industry regulations are becoming stricter, and leading market share is expected to increase in April 2024. Policy documents such as the “Electric Bicycle Industry Specification Conditions” place higher requirements on electric bicycle production standards and lithium battery usage standards. Regulatory policies tend to be strict, and small and medium-sized enterprises continue to be clarified.
As an industry leader, the company actively participated in the construction of national standards, and its market share is expected to increase.
The cost advantage is obvious. Companies with leading brand influence continue to carry out lean management, improve the quality efficiency of individual products by streamlining SKUs, improve supply chain efficiency through integrated production plans, component platformization and modularization, and continue to reduce costs. In 2024 H1, the company's gross profit margin was 17.8%, +2.3 pct year-on-year. Focusing on the “technology and fashion” brand proposition, the company enhances brand reputation through terminal store upgrades, sponsorship of popular variety shows, and online social media promotion.
Excluding share payments, the 2024 Q2 performance increased month-on-month in 2024 Q2, and the company achieved operating income of 5.64 billion yuan, +18.1% year-on-month, and +13.8% month-on-month; realized net profit to mother of 0.47 billion yuan, +12.1% year-on-year, and -3.3% month-on-month. Excluding the share payment fee of 0.07 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mother was 0.54 billion yuan, +29.0% year over year and +11.3% month over month.
The proposed cash dividend of 0.286 billion yuan, accounting for 30.07% of net profit attributable to the mother, actively rewards shareholders and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.332 yuan (tax included) per share to all shareholders. The exact date will be specified in the equity distribution implementation announcement. As of August 21, 2024, the total share capital of the company after deducting the special repurchase account was 0.861 billion shares. Using this, the proposed discovery dividend of 0.286 billion yuan (tax included) was calculated, accounting for 30.07% of net profit to mother in the first half of 2024.
As a leader in the electric two-wheeler industry, profit forecasting and investment rating companies have obvious cost advantages and leading brand influence. The company's 2024-2026E revenue is estimated to be 23.142/27.183/30.595 billion yuan, net profit to mother is 2.14/2.703/3.248 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 11.42/9.04/7.53X, respectively. The electric two-wheeler industry has entered high-quality development. We are optimistic that the company's performance will continue to grow and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risks indicate changes in industry regulatory policies, increased risk due to industry competition, falling short of expectations in downstream demand, falling short of expectations in promoting new products, falling short of expectations, etc.
