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百隆东方(601339):净利逐季改善 股息率具备吸引力

Blum Oriental (601339): Net profit improving quarterly dividend rates is attractive

華西證券 ·  Aug 27

An overview of all things _ s description um mary]

24H1's revenue/net profit attributable to mothers/net profit after deduction of non-attributable net profit/operating cash flow were 39.89/0.233/0.107/0.886 billion yuan respectively, up 23.89% %/ -14.78%/-46.70%/470.89% year-on-year. The performance was in line with expectations, and net profit improved quarterly. Non-current asset disposal income (24Q1/2 was 0.111/0.008 billion yuan, respectively) and financial asset investment income (23/24H1 was 0.039/0.027 billion yuan). The decline in net profit to mother was mainly due to a decline in gross margin. Our analysis was mainly due to depreciation in the first half of last year. The net operating cash flow was much higher than net profit mainly due to reduced inventory and depreciation expenses.

24Q2 The company's revenue/net profit attributable to mothers/net profit after deduction was 2.155/0.152/0.115 billion yuan respectively, up 24.27%/-19.35%/-7.7% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-net profit improved quarterly, reversing losses month-on-month, and was mainly income from financial asset investment (0.018 billion yuan).

Analytical judgment:

Vietnam's profitability improved, and revenue growth was driven by increased volume and structural improvements. 1) By region, 24H1 foreign/domestic revenue was 2.994/0.995 billion yuan, up 23.89%/14.42% year on year, of which Vietnam's revenue/net profit was 3.089/0.218 billion yuan, up 27.37%/33.73% year on year; net interest rate was 7.1%, up 0.3 PCT year on year; the company's current production capacity is located in Vietnam. 2) Looking at the volume/price split, 24H1 sales volume/unit price is +23.84%/basically the same. According to our analysis, the 24H1 cotton/yarn price increased 4.9%/1.1% year on year, and the company's price change was comparable to that of the industry.

The decline in net interest rate was lower than gross profit margin, mainly benefiting from increased returns on asset disposal. (1) 24H1's gross margin/ net profit margin to mother was 10.00%/5.84%, down 4.92/2.64PCT; 24H1's sales/management/ R&D/finance expense ratios were 0.6%/3.97%/1.47%/1.48%, respectively, down 0.04/1.78/-0.06/-1.09PCT. The increase in the financial expense ratio was mainly due to a year-on-year decrease in net exchange revenue; the decline in the management expense ratio was mainly due to the decline in employee remuneration. Investment income/revenue decreased by 1.68 PCT to 1.57% year on year, mainly due to the decline in investment income from disposal of transactional financial assets; the share of net income from non-operating income decreased by 0.17 PCT year on year; profit and loss/revenue from fair value changes increased 0.35 PCT to -0.42% year on year; asset disposal income/revenue increased 2.43 PCT to 2.98% year on year; and income tax/income was 0.68%, down 0.52 PCT year on year. (3) 24Q2 gross margin was 13.5%, down 2.80 PCT year on year and 7.61 PCT month on month; 24Q2 net interest rate/deducted non-net interest rate was 7.1%/5.3%, down 3.8/1.8 PCT year on year, and increased 2.7/5.7 PCT month on month. The decline in net interest rate was higher than gross margin mainly due to a decrease in investment income (net income from investment/revenue decreased by 1.87 PCT year on year).

Inventories have declined sharply, and the share of raw materials has increased. At the end of 24H1, the company's inventory was 4.243 billion yuan, down 22% year on year, inventory turnover days was 224 days, with a year-on-year decrease of 131 days, of which raw materials/inventory products accounted for 59%/30%, +3.4/0.8PCT; accounts receivable were 0.64 billion yuan, up 24.85% year on year; accounts receivable turnover was 28 days, up 1 day year on year; accounts payable were 0.186 billion yuan, down 39.59% year on year, and the number of accounts payable turnover days was 10 days, year over year Reduced by 10 days.

Investment advice

We analyzed that (1) the company's profit fluctuated greatly in the first two years due to fluctuations in cotton futures, and the company's profit margin was underutilized due to downstream inventory removal in '23. As downstream demand gradually recovered and product structure improved this year, net profit recovered quarterly, fundamentals broke out of the trough; (2) land compensation and investment income from Ningbo Commerce Bank will also contribute; (3) In the long run, the company's share increase logic has not changed. The importance of Vietnam's layout has become more prominent, and the company's production expansion continues; (4) With the company's drastic expansion of production, the company's dividend is still continuing; (4) With the company's drastic expansion of production, the dividend is currently continuing; (4) With the company's drastic expansion of production, the dividend is currently continuing; (4) With the company's drastic expansion of production, the dividend is currently continuing; (4) With the company's drastic expansion of production, the dividend is currently continuing; (4) With the company's drastic expansion of production, the dividend is currently continuing; (4) With the company's drastic expansion The rate is 6.8%, which is attractive. Maintain 24-26 revenue forecast of 7.656/8.338/9.02 billion yuan; maintain 24-26 net profit forecast of 0.561/0.759/0.879 billion yuan, corresponding to 24-26 EPS of 0.37/0.51/0.59 yuan. The closing price of 4.44 yuan on August 26, 2024 was 12/9/8X for PE, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning

Cotton price fluctuation risk; risk of falling demand due to inflation in Europe and the US; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; systemic risk.

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