ExxonMobil's latest belief is that by 2050, global demand for crude oil will remain at current levels or even slightly increase; If the development trajectory forecasted by ExxonMobil is followed, the goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will become increasingly out of reach.
On Monday, August 26th local time, the American energy giant ExxonMobil updated its 'Global Outlook' on its official website, according to financial association.
ExxonMobil's latest belief is that by 2050, global demand for crude oil will remain at current levels or even slightly increase. The report indicates that demand for crude oil in areas such as power generation and passenger vehicles will weaken, but demand will be supported to remain above 0.1 billion barrels per day by the chemical and commercial transportation sectors.
Source: ExxonMobil
In contrast, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) net zero emissions scenario believes that in order to achieve the ideal temperature control target set by the Paris Agreement – keeping the global average temperature increase within 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, crude oil demand must decrease by 75% to 24 million barrels per day by 2050.
This means that if the development trajectory forecasted by ExxonMobil is followed, the goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will become increasingly out of reach. ExxonMobil's Chief Economist and Energy Director Chris Birdsall told the media: 'Both the IEA and we believe that the world is not on that (net zero emissions) path.'
Birdsall said: 'We must remain highly aware of the world's current path, otherwise we are deceiving ourselves.' The 'Global Outlook' also predicts that by 2030, global carbon emissions will decrease for the first time; by 2050, it will decrease by 25%, but this is not enough to prevent significant climate change.
Overall, ExxonMobil's forecast is basically in line with the views of other industry participants. OPEC previously projected that global daily oil demand would reach 0.116 billion barrels by 2045; pipeline operator Enbridge also estimated that demand could exceed 0.11 billion barrels per day.
Many energy companies, including ExxonMobil, have set targets to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, as energy demand continues to grow, these goals are becoming increasingly challenging.
Birdsall explained that the consequences would be "disastrous" if new fossil fuel projects are not invested in now. ExxonMobil predicts that without new investment, oil supply will decrease by 70% by 2030, dropping to 30 million barrels per day. This would lead to a surge in crude oil prices and undermine the global economy.
Source: ExxonMobil
Media analysis suggests that this report may anger environmentalists, who often accuse the oil industry of using pessimistic narratives to hinder climate action and protect profits. In response, Birdsall points out that 'Outlook for Energy' is a forecast based on real data and objective expectations, and is "truthful."
Birdsall emphasizes, "We must strongly convey this message because some activists are advocating to 'keep the oil in the ground.' We can point out that this approach has already begun to infiltrate government policies, which is truly dangerous."