2024 年上半年，公司实现业绩高增主要系1）出货量增长，上半年实现发货量71 万吨，同比增长19%；2）产品结构改善，毛利率增长至12.41%，同比上升0.63 个百分点；3）外贸高速增长30%，二季度沪铝和伦铝价差缩小，进一步夯实公司内外并重的发展格局，增厚公司外贸利润；4）再生铝使用比例扩大，增厚单吨利润空间。On August 19, 2024, the company released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 15.314 billion yuan, an increase of 21.26% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 1.07 billion yuan, an increase of 33.28% over the previous year.
In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 7.185 billion yuan, up 17.92% year on year, up 2.85% month on month; net profit to mother was 0.362 billion yuan, up 2.35% year on year and 93.58% month on month. In the second quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 8.129 billion yuan, up 24.18% year on year, up 13.14% month on month; net profit to mother was 0.708 billion yuan, up 57.68% year on year, up 95.58% month on month.
In 2024, aluminum prices mainly rose from January to May, and experienced a wave of decline after June. Since the company's product pricing was based on the “aluminum ingot price+processing fee” model, the overall rise in aluminum prices in the first half of the year boosted the company's revenue.
In the first half of 2024, the company achieved high performance growth mainly due to 1) increased shipment volume of 0.71 million tons in the first half of the year, up 19% year on year; 2) improved product structure, gross margin increased to 12.41%, up 0.63 percentage points year on year; 3) rapid growth in foreign trade by 30%. The price difference between Shanghai Aluminum and Lun Aluminum narrowed in the second quarter, further consolidating the company's internal and external development pattern and increasing the company's foreign trade profit; 4) the increase in the proportion of recycled aluminum used per ton.
Mingtai Aluminum has continuously expanded the production scale and usage ratio of recycled aluminum in recent years. Currently, it has a production capacity of more than 1 million tons of recycled aluminum downgraded applications, and more than 10 products have completed SGS carbon footprint certification. With the completion of the construction of the Yirui New Materials Project, the proportion of recycled aluminum used will continue to increase, and the company's profits will further increase.
The company attaches importance to R&D investment. The R&D investment in the first half of 2024 was 0.809 billion yuan. The two national standards for rail transit participating in the revision were officially implemented. The gross margin of the rail vehicle sector is high. If this business continues to expand, it will help further open up the company's profit margins.
Investment advice: The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 34.806, 37.59, and 41.35 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother will be 1.767, 1.984, and 2.248 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding PE 7.98 times, 7.08 times, and 6.26 times. Overall, against the backdrop of the deepening domestic economic recovery process and the Federal Reserve's imminent interest rate cut, aluminum prices may continue to rise, and the company's product sales and revenue may continue to grow, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The company's production volume and sales fell short of expectations; major changes in the price of electrolytic aluminum; major adverse changes in the aluminum processing industry pattern; major adverse changes in company management, etc.
