公司2024 上半年取得收入695.62 亿元，同比+22.1%；归母核心净利润49.49 亿元，同比+27.5%；归母净利润20.45 亿元，同比-19.6%，主要由于市场下行售价不及预期，毛利率同比-4.3pct 至13.1%（2023 年13.0%），同时资产减值及公允价值变动损失同比增加12.9 亿元至17.5 亿元（其中非金融资产减值14.22 亿元，信用减值3.24 亿元）。截至上半年末公司在手现金较2023 年末提升17 亿元至751亿元，可覆盖一年内到期借款余额2.1 倍，融资成本同比下降40 基点至4.0%。Core net profit to the mother increased year-on-year, and turnover efficiency continued to improve, maintaining the “buy” rating
Greentown China announced 2024 interim results. The company's revenue growth and gross margin are under pressure, turnover efficiency continues to improve, self-investment and construction services go hand in hand, the land storage structure is high quality, and financing costs are constantly decreasing. We maintain our profit forecast. We expect the company's net profit to be 3.654, 4.397, and 5.07 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding EPS of 1.44, 1.74, and 2.00 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 3.5, 2.9, and 2.5 times. We are optimistic that the company's profit will recover after the carry-over of its low gross profit project is completed, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Gross margin was under year-on-year pressure, and core net profit to mother increased year-on-year
The company achieved revenue of 69.562 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, +22.1% year over year; core net profit to mother of 4.949 billion yuan, +27.5% year over year; net profit to mother 2.045 billion yuan, -19.6% year over year, mainly due to falling market prices falling short of expectations, gross margin -4.3 pct to 13.1% year on year (13.0% in 2023), while asset impairment and fair value change losses increased 1.29 billion yuan to 1.75 year on year billion yuan (including 1.422 billion yuan of depreciation of non-financial assets and 0.324 billion yuan of credit impairment). As of the end of the first half of the year, the company's cash on hand increased by 1.7 billion yuan to 75.1 billion yuan compared to the end of 2023, which could cover 2.1 times the balance of loans maturing within one year, and financing costs decreased by 40 basis points to 4.0% year on year.
The ratio of equity between sales and land acquisition has increased, and turnover efficiency continues to improve
The company achieved a sales area of 5.91 million square meters in the first half of 2024, with sales volume of 126.5 billion yuan, down 2.2% and 5.7%, respectively. The sales ranking rose to sixth in the industry. Among them, the equity ratio of self-invested projects was +7pct to 71% year-on-year.
The company's sales payback rate in the first half of the year reached 103%, and the initial launch removal rate was 78%. The company added 15 new projects in the first half of the year, adding 1.31 million square meters in terms of equity and land acquisition amount of 15.4 billion yuan, with an estimated saleable value of 33.3 billion yuan. The core second-tier share accounts for 94%, the land acquisition equity ratio increased to 84%, and the sales conversion rate for the year of land acquisition in the first half of the year. As of the end of the first half of the year, the total construction surface of the company was 31.93 million square meters, of which Tier 1 and 2 goods accounted for 79% of the value. The company's overall operating efficiency of new projects increased by 14% in the first half of the year, and set 18 opening and sell-out records in Hangzhou in the first half of the year.
The contract construction business performed well, and the “Greentown +” business collaborated
Greentown Management, a subsidiary of the company, maintained more than 20% of the contract construction market share for eight consecutive years. Revenue and net profit to mother increased by 7.8% and 5.8% respectively in the first half of the year. The contract area was 0.123 billion square meters, +8.1% year-on-year, and the new development area in the first half of the year was 17.46 million square meters, or +1.1% year-on-year. The “Greentown +” business developed intensively in the first half of the year. The lifestyle technology business signed more than 50 million new contracts, commercial sector revenue +26.4% year-on-year, and small-town business operating profit +72% year-on-year.
Risk warning: Policy support falls short of expectations, industry sales recovery falls short of expectations, company financing falls short of expectations.
