全球能源转型和AI 技术发展驱动电力需求上升，产能布局逐步加速。公司全球化战略深入推进，出海布局持续深入，截至2024 年6 月，公司在手订单65.62 亿元（不含税），同比增长29.88%，其中海外订单28.49 亿元，同比增长达180.16%。在产能布局方面，公司已在墨西哥扩充产能，并准备在墨、美两国全面增产。同时，欧洲的波兰工厂及销售及售后服务总部已布局完毕，预计第四季度波兰可开工投产。Net profit from 2024Q2 grew by 23.02%, and earnings are expected to recover in the third quarter.
In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.917 billion yuan, up 0.79% year on year; realized net profit of 0.222 billion yuan, up 16.43% year on year; realized deducted non-net profit of 0.212 billion yuan, up 13.28% year on year; in a single quarter, 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 1.611 billion yuan, an increase of 0.94% year on year, and realized net profit to mother of 0.178 billion yuan, an increase of 23.02% year on year. In terms of gross margin, in the first half of 2024, the company's gross sales margin was 23.26%, up 1.60 pcts year on year; net margin was 7.61%, up 1.01 pcts year on year, and performance increased steadily.
Business split: In the first half of 2024, the power transmission, distribution and control equipment manufacturing industry achieved revenue of 2.447 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 12.71%; energy storage series products achieved revenue of 0.284 billion yuan, an increase of 287.16% over the previous year. Domestic sales revenue of 2.11 billion yuan was mainly due to a slowdown in the growth rate of the domestic wind power and photovoltaic industry; overseas revenue performance was impressive, with sales revenue of 0.791 billion yuan, an increase of 48.53% over the previous year, accounting for 27%, a sharp increase from 2023.
The global energy transition and the development of AI technology are driving a rise in electricity demand, and the production capacity layout is gradually accelerating. The company's globalization strategy is further advanced, and the overseas layout continues to deepen. As of June 2024, the company's current orders were 6.562 billion yuan (excluding tax), an increase of 29.88% over the previous year, including overseas orders of 2.849 billion yuan, an increase of 180.16% over the previous year. In terms of production capacity layout, the company has expanded production capacity in Mexico and is preparing to comprehensively increase production in Mexico and the US. Meanwhile, the Polish factory and sales and after-sales service headquarters in Europe have been laid out, and it is expected that Poland can start production in the fourth quarter.
Overseas orders are growing at an impressive rate, and long-term large orders need to be increased in the future. In the first half of 2024, new overseas orders were 1.809 billion yuan, up 67.5% year on year; new domestic orders were added about 1.4 billion yuan, down 60.2% year on year. Overseas transformer orders worth 0.739 billion yuan, digital factory orders worth 0.297 billion yuan, and digital factory orders worth 229 million yuan, as disclosed in the company announcement, were all delivered after 2024. The settlement period is long, and we look forward to the release of subsequent sales volume.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: According to the company's new orders and industry developments, we expect the company's revenue in 2024-2026 to be 7.95/9.95/12.42 billion yuan (originally 9.1/12.04/15.14 billion yuan), and the corresponding net profit to mother will be 0.65/0.95/1.2 billion yuan (originally 0.78/1.05/1.35 billion yuan), respectively, reducing the target price from 67.51 yuan/share to 49.33 yuan/ Shares (-27%) maintain the “better than market” rating.
Risk warning: 1. Relevant policies and power grid investment fall short of expectations; 2. Installed capacity of new energy and energy storage falls short of expectations; 3. Prices of raw materials have risen sharply; 4. Trade frictions.
