According to the Futu Securities research report, the July slaughter volume has recovered, and the pig price continues to fluctuate in a high prosperity range. The national average price of crossbred pigs this week is 20.6 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 2.8%; the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 124.7kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.1%. The price of piglets is fluctuating at a high level; data from the Chinese Animal Husbandry Association in July showed an 8.8% year-on-year decrease in the sales of fattening pig feed, indicating that the supply pressure of pigs has begun to ease. The number of newborn piglets reaching a turning point in October 2023, six months later, means that the turning point of pig slaughter volume will begin in April 2024, and the supply pressure of pigs will decrease month by month; combined with the seasonal impact of last year's autumn and winter diseases, pig prices are expected to continue to rise. Futu Securities recommends Muyuan Foods with low cost compared to the industry, Wens Foodstuff Group with a balanced and diversified business, as well as companies such as Giantstar Farming & Husbandry and Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products which have low cost and high-growth logic, and recommends paying attention to Tangrenshen Group. Finally, it recommends companies with relatively healthy balance sheets and sufficient funds, such as Tecon Biology, New Wellful, Tangrenshen Group, and Cofco Joycome.

Pork: The July slaughter volume has recovered, and the pig price continues to fluctuate in a high prosperity range. The national average price of crossbred pigs this week is 20.6 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 2.8%; the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 124.7kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.1%. The price of piglets is fluctuating at a high level, with the average price of 15kg crossbred piglets this week at 664 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8%. Data from the Chinese Animal Husbandry Association in July showed an 8.8% year-on-year decrease in the sales of fattening pig feed, indicating that the supply pressure of pigs has begun to ease. The number of newborn piglets reaching a turning point in October 2023, six months later, means that the turning point of pig slaughter volume will begin in April 2024, and the supply pressure of pigs will decrease month by month; combined with the seasonal impact of last year's autumn and winter diseases, pig prices are expected to continue to rise. Futu Securities recommends Muyuan Foods with low cost compared to the industry, Wens Foodstuff Group with a balanced and diversified business, as well as companies such as Giantstar Farming & Husbandry and Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products which have low cost and high-growth logic, and recommends paying attention to Tangrenshen Group. Finally, it recommends companies with relatively healthy balance sheets and sufficient funds, such as Tecon Biology, New Wellful, Tangrenshen Group, and Cofco Joycome.

Broilers: Chick prices surged and then fell back, expecting a subsequent peak season catalyst. The average price of white-feathered chicken chicks this week is 3.1 yuan/bird, a week-on-week decrease of 4.0%; the average price of white-feathered broilers is 3.7 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 3.9%. The price of chicken chicks surged and then fell back this week, mainly due to the rise in temperature and the impact of rainy weather, which increased the enthusiasm for broiler farming. However, live chickens are being sold at a reduced price, which has put some pressure on the rising price of chicken chicks. The previous shortage of parent breeders has gradually led to a reduction in the supply of commercial broilers, and the reduction in supply is expected to drive up the price of chicks. In addition to the subsequent seasonal warming of downstream demand, the price of commercial broiler chicks is expected to enter a prosperous range, which is good for the industry chain upstream and downstream companies. It is recommended to pay attention to Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding, Fujian Sunner Development, Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry, and Wellhope Foods.

Animal Protection: Waiting for the prosperity of the industry chain, focusing on the progress of non-plague vaccine research and development. The gradual realization of production capacity digestion is awaited, and the industry chain prosperity resonates. With the accelerated decline in the inventory of sows starting from October 2023 and the continued reduction in the number of fattening pigs slaughtered, the second half of 2024 is expected to bring about an important reversal in pig prices. The animal protection sector is expected to have a bright performance with the dual support of the late-cycle of the breeding industry and the window period for non-plague vaccine news. The progress of non-plague vaccine research and development will be an important catalyst for the animal protection sector, and it is recommended to pay attention to Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.,Ltd , Pulike Biological Engineering,Inc. and China Animal Husbandry Industry, and to follow Jinyu Bio-technology and Jinhe Biotechnology.

Planting: The global agricultural supply for 2024/2025 is expected to be relatively abundant, and attention is focused on promoting the early progress of blueberries. 【Soybeans】 The estimated production of soybeans in the United States has been significantly increased, while the global production of soybeans has slightly decreased. 【Corn】 The estimated production of corn in the United States has been raised, and global stocks have increased. 【Wheat】 The estimated production of wheat in the United States and globally has both decreased. The global wheat production estimate is 0.798 billion tons, an increase of 10.47 million tons compared to the same period, with increases in wheat production in Argentina, Australia, Canada, and India. The global wheat consumption estimate is 0.802 billion tons, an increase of 2.03 million tons compared to the same period. The final estimate for global wheat ending stocks is 0.254 billion tons, a decrease of 4.19 million tons compared to the same period, mainly due to the decrease in ending stocks in Russia, with the stock-to-use ratio at 31.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period. 【Blueberries】 The production area is growing rapidly, and it is expected to promote early achievement of both quantity and price. Noposion's blueberry expansion is rapid, with the company expecting the production area in 2025 to be 1.5 times that of 2024, from 0.02 million mu to 0.03 million mu, with the yield per mu expected to increase. The fourth quarter is a high-priced period for blueberries. According to Noposion's 23/24 production season, the average sales price of blueberries in October and November was as high as 105,000 yuan/ton, with significant profits per ton. This year, the company will further expand the scale of early promotion of blueberries to establish a logic for both quantity and price increase. It continues to recommend Noposion.

Risk Warning: The volume of slaughtered pigs is lower than expected; significant fluctuations in agricultural product prices; disease impact exceeds expectations.