结论：公司业绩实现稳健增长，2024H1实现收入105.91亿元/+3.7%，实现归母净利润9.51 亿元/+6.2%，实现扣非归母净利润8.93 亿元/+7.2%。其中2024Q2 实现收入56.37 亿元/+18.1%，实现归母净利润4.67 亿元/+12.1%，实现扣非归母净利润4.43 亿元/+21.4%。维持2024-2026 年EPS 预测为2.67/3.32/3.99 元，维持目标价38.76 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's 2024H1 performance grew steadily, and bicycle ASP and net profit increased significantly. It is expected that along with the new national standard revisions and trade-in policy incentives, the company is expected to increase its share through brand reputation.
Key points of investment:
Conclusion: The company's performance achieved steady growth, achieved revenue of 10.591 billion yuan/ +3.7% in 2024H1, achieved net profit of 0.951 billion yuan/ +6.2%, and achieved net profit of 0.893 billion yuan/ +7.2% after deducting net profit from non-mother. Among them, 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 5.637 billion yuan/ +18.1%, realized net profit of 0.467 billion yuan/ +12.1%, and realized net profit of 0.443 billion yuan/ +21.4% after deduction of non-return to mother. Maintain the 2024-2026 EPS forecast of 2.67/3.32/3.99 yuan, maintain the target price of 38.76 yuan, and maintain the “increase” rating.
Revenue growth is steady, and sales can be expected to increase. Heavy snow at the beginning of the year and the national inspection had a certain impact on store operations, but the company actively promoted product sales. 2024Q2 sales volume was 2.82 million/ +11.3%, the ASP for bicycles was 2003 yuan/ +8.0%, the company's product structure continued to be optimized, the product intelligence rate reached 100%, and high-value high-value single products such as Luna/Yangwang were popular. It is expected that along with SKU streamlining, the ASP will continue to improve. Currently, there is broad demand for industry replacement. The new national standard revisions and trade-in subsidies are expected to drive industry sales growth. As the first batch of leading enterprises on the white list, the company can take the lead in benefiting. At the same time, the company plans to invest and expand production in Fengxian County, Xuzhou, Jiangsu. Fengxian is a major domestic electric tricycle industry base. It has a complete closed loop, and is expected to quickly collaborate to contribute to growth. It is expected that the scale advantage will be exploited after the expansion of production capacity, and there is still room for improvement in gross margin, which is expected to contribute to increased performance growth.
The product structure continues to be optimized, and profitability is steadily improving. The company's high-end products expanded smoothly, and the cost side was relatively stable, driving the upward trend in gross margin. The 2024Q2 gross profit margin was 17.64% /+2.3pct, the net profit margin was 8.42% /-0.3pct, the net profit for bicycles was 166 yuan/ +1.8%, and the year-on-year decrease in net interest rate in 20Q2 was mainly affected by the increase in cost rates, with an expense ratio of 8.8% /+2.8pct during the period.
The policy is about to be implemented, and the industry is expected to improve. 1) New national standard: A consultation draft is expected to be issued in September and landed in November. The focus is on weight and the practicality of pedals. It is estimated that the weight can be raised from 55 kg to 63 kg. After removing the pedals, there is room to lift the battery weight by about 10 kg, which will help improve product strength and promote purchasing intentions. 2) Trade-in: Currently, some regional plans are to provide a subsidy of 500 yuan/vehicle. It is expected that all parts of the country will introduce corresponding policies one after another at the end of September, effectively boosting replacement demand.
Risk warning: Core technology or design is imitated by peers; industry price competition squeezes profits.