下调目标价至67.26元，维持“增持”评级。公司发布 2024年半年度报告，受营收环比降低、客户当期补差收入减少和补贴减少等因素的影响，Q2 净利润暂时承压。维持2024-2026 年EPS 为2.30/2.76/3.39 元，综合PE/PB 两种估值方法取平均值，下调目标价至67.26 元（原为90.81 元），维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The company released the 2024 semi-annual report. H1 net profit maintained year-on-year growth, and Q2 performance temporarily fluctuated. It is expected that as new customers and global customer projects expand, and the superimposed car market enters a peak season, the company's performance is expected to continue to improve.
Key points of investment:
The target price was lowered to 67.26 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating. The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. Q2 net profit was temporarily under pressure due to factors such as a month-on-month decline in revenue, a decrease in customer current compensation income, and a reduction in subsidies. The 2024-2026 EPS was maintained at 2.30/2.76/3.39 yuan. The combined PE/PB valuation method took the average value, and the target price was lowered to 67.26 yuan (originally 90.81 yuan), and the holdings increase rating was maintained.
The company's H1 net profit increased year-on-year, and the month-on-month growth rate of Q2 performance was temporarily under pressure. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.74 billion yuan, +39.8% year-on-year, realized net profit to mother of 0.37 billion yuan, +34.9% year-on-year, and achieved deduction of non-net profit of 0.34 billion yuan, or +32.1% year-on-year. Among them, Q2 2024 achieved revenue of 1.33 billion yuan, +26.4% YoY, -6.5% month-on-month, realized net profit of 0.15 billion yuan, +6.1% YoY, and -29.1% month-on-month, and realized deduction of 0.14 billion yuan in non-net profit, +4.8% YoY and -28.4% month-on-month. The company's Q2 revenue declined month-on-month, and Q2 performance was temporarily under pressure due to a combination of factors such as a decrease in customer compensation revenue confirmed in the current period and a decrease in government subsidy revenue. It is expected to improve as the second half of the year enters the peak passenger car production and sales season.
Q2 The overall cost rate has been declining steadily. In 2024, the company's gross margin was 26.1%, -4.5 pct year on year, -5.9 pct month on month, net profit margin 12.4%, -2.1 pct year on year, and -3.9 pct month on month. In the Q2 quarter, the company's sales/management/R&D expense rates were 0.9%/4.6%/8.8%, respectively, -0.6pct/-0.8pct/-2.2pct year-on-year, and -2.7pct/+0.6pct/+1.3pct, respectively. The company continued to implement cost reduction and efficiency measures, and the overall cost rate declined steadily.
Customers from new forces such as Ideal continue to grow, and international customers are expected to become medium- to long-term growth points. The value of the company's products such as body domain controllers for ideal cars is high, and terminal sales for superimposed customers have also achieved continuous growth. In 2024, H1 Ideal became the company's fourth largest customer, accounting for 11% of sales and sales of about 0.3 billion yuan, an increase of 157.5% over the previous year. In addition, the company continues to deepen cooperation with the Volkswagen Group, and has successively obtained targets for various projects such as Volkswagen and Audi Global, and the active projects of global customers such as BMW and Ford are also quite sufficient, and it is expected that the medium- to long-term scale will continue to expand.
Risk warning: the risk of sales fluctuations in major downstream customers, the pace of new product release falls short of expectations
