Q2 非煤业务盈利环比回落，焦化亏损或有所扩大。24H1 公司除煤炭生产的其他业务实现收入/成本8.8/10.1 亿元，其中24Q1/Q2 收入5.17/3.67 亿元，成本5.21/4.89 亿元，Q2 实现毛利-1.3 亿元（Q1 毛利-443 万元），环比显著下滑，或由于焦化亏损进一步扩大所致。Net profit from 24H1 was -58% year-on-year, and Q2 quarter-on-quarter was -27%. The company 24H1 achieved revenue/net profit of 17.65/2.23 billion yuan, -19.3%/-58% YoY, net profit not attributable to mother of 2.25 billion yuan, or -57.3% YoY.
Among them, Q2's net profit for a single quarter was 0.94 billion yuan, -27.1%/-51% month-on-year.
Coal business: 24H1 coal business volume decreased, cost increased, and Q2 average sales price fell slightly month-on-month. 1) Production and sales volume: 24H1's raw coal production/commercial coal sales volume is 27.67/24.55 million tons, -6.3%/-10% year-on-year. Among them, injection coal/mixed coal sales volume was 9.36/13.85 million tons, -4.7%/-9.8% year-on-year; injection coal sales accounted for 38.1%, +2.1pct year on year. In a single quarter in Q2, the company sold 12.74 million tons of commercial coal, +7.9%/-12.6% month-on-month, of which injected/mixed coal sales were 4.77/7.3 million tons, +3.9%/11.5% month-on-month; injection coal sales accounted for 37.4%, or -1.4pct month-on-month. 2) Price: The comprehensive sales price of 24H1's commercial coal was 683 yuan/ton, -11.6% year-on-year. The comprehensive price of commercial coal in Q2 was 677 yuan/ton in a single season, -1.8%/-0.4% month-on-year. 3) Cost: 24H1's commercial coal unit cost was 371 yuan/ton, +10.7% year-on-year, of which Q1/Q2 was 378/365 yuan/ton, respectively, and Q2 cost -3.3% month-on-month.
Q2 Non-coal business profits declined month-on-month, and coking losses may have increased. In addition to coal production, 24H1 achieved revenue/cost of 0.88/1.01 billion yuan, of which 24Q1/Q2 revenue was 0.517/0.367 billion yuan, cost 0.521/0.489 billion yuan, and Q2 achieved gross profit of -0.13 billion yuan (Q1 gross profit -4.43 million yuan), a significant month-on-month decline, or due to further expansion of coking losses.
The 12.1 billion yuan bid for coal prospecting rights in the Shangma block of Xiangyuan County, Shanxi Province is conducive to the company's expansion of storage and sustainable development. According to the company's announcement on August 22, 2024, the company competed for coal prospecting rights in the Shangma block of Xiangyuan County, Shanxi Province for 12.126 billion yuan. The Shangma block in Xiangyuan County, Shanxi Province has 0.82 billion tons of coal resources. The proposed concession period is 5 years, equivalent to 14.8 yuan per ton of resources, and is close to the company's headquarters and main mining area. We believe that this resource auction is in line with the company's main business positioning and future development strategy, and will further increase the company's coal resource reserves, which is conducive to enhancing the company's core service functions and core competitive advantages as well as sustainable and steady future development.
Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect that the company's volume reduction and cost increase in 24 years may cause further pressure on performance, but the results of cost reduction and efficiency may gradually become apparent after 25 years. Net profit from 24 to 26 is 5.04/6/6.24 billion yuan, corresponding EPS is 1.69/2/2.08 yuan. Based on comparable company valuations, the company is given 12 to 13 times PE in 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 20.23 to 21.92 yuan, maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. Demand has declined sharply, and large amounts of bad debts are being prepared for accrual.
