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恒林股份(603661)2024年中报点评:跨境电商稳步高增 海运汇兑短期扰动业绩

Henglin Co., Ltd. (603661) 2024 Interim Report Review: Cross-border e-commerce is growing steadily and shipping exchange disrupts short-term performance

國聯證券 ·  Aug 25

Incidents:

Henglin Co., Ltd. released its 2024 semi-annual report: 2024H1 achieved revenue of 4.804 billion yuan, +31.86% year on year, realized net profit of 0.22 billion yuan, and realized net profit of 0.22 billion yuan after deduction, -9.17% year on year; in a single quarter, 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 2.451 billion yuan, +25.68% year on year, and realized net profit to mother of 0.117 billion yuan, year over year- 36.30%, achieving net profit of 0.117 billion yuan after deduction, -29.23% year-on-year.

Cross-border e-commerce is growing at a steady rate, and manufacturing business is picking up

The company actively expanded its overseas brand business. In the first half of 2024, revenue increased by 31.86% year-on-year. Among them, the cross-border e-commerce business continued to increase. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 1.686 billion yuan, +240.89% over the same period. Currently, it has cross-border e-commerce brands such as SweetFurniture and Colamy, covering products such as ergonomic chairs, lift tables, storage cabinets, functional sofas, etc.; the manufacturing business has established long-term cooperative relationships with well-known international customers such as IKEA, NITORI, and Home Depot. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 2.461 billion yuan, +10.62% YoY. In order to be close to the consumer side, the company has also set up 0.35 millionm2 warehousing and distribution centers in 5 major regions including New Jersey in the United States to improve delivery time and reduce logistics costs.

Shipping exchange disrupts performance, putting pressure on profits in the short term

In addition to the Red Sea incident in the first half of the year, some categories were shipped early due to tariff increases. Transportation capacity was scarce, and sea freight rates rose year-on-year. Therefore, 2024H1/Q2 gross margins were -2.55/-5.02pct year on year, respectively. 2024H1 sales/management/R&D/finance rates were +0.76/-1.20/-0.76/+1.85pct, respectively. The main reason was that the company increased new product promotion and marketing expenses to increase market share. In addition, compared with H1 in 2023, the company's exchange earnings decreased by 0.072 billion yuan and land plant expropriation compensation decreased by 0.028 billion yuan. Under the combined impact, profits were pressured in the short term. The 2024H1/Q2 net margin was -2.47/-4.57pct, respectively. In the future, as disruptive factors such as shipping weaken, the company's profits will recover somewhat.

Extensive platform layout, gradually building a global marketing system

The company achieved net operating cash flow of 0.647 billion yuan in 2024H1, +152.19% year over year, and accounts receivable/payable/inventory turnover days of 53.45/90.01/101.44 days, respectively. Among them, the 33.42% year-on-year increase in inventory was mainly due to an increase in overseas warehouse inventory, and the company's overall operating capacity performance was stable. Henglin's cross-border e-commerce sales channels cover mainstream domestic and foreign third-party online e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, Walmart, TEMU, and TikTok, while also deploying social media such as Facebook and Instagram. As of 2024H1, its OBM accounted for 48.61% of revenue.

The products are sold all over the United States, South Korea and other countries and regions, and a global marketing network system will be gradually built in the future.

The company's cross-border e-commerce continues to increase, maintaining a “buy” rating

Henglin's cross-border e-commerce continues to grow rapidly, demand in the manufacturing sector picks up, shipping exchange disrupts profits in the short term, and future profit levels are expected to improve. We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 10.425/12.552/14.868 billion yuan, respectively, +27.21%/+20.41%/+18.46% year over year, and net profit to mother is 0.503/0.648/0.804 billion yuan, respectively, +91.01%/+28.99%/+24.07%, EPS It was 3.61/4.66/5.78 yuan/share, respectively, and the 3-year C AGR was 45.13%. The multi-category layout implements the big household strategy, and e-commerce continues to grow at a high rate, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: risk of spending intentions falling short of expectations; risk of overseas business environment and policy risks; risk of RMB exchange rate fluctuations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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